2026 schedule
Illinois State Redbirds
2026 season so far
Illinois State is 6-2 against the 89th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+18.8 per game).
Illinois State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Murray State in Week 9. We project Illinois State 43, Murray State 12 — Illinois State wins 98% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints
No record · SOS #1
Win 76-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 16.3
Total 55.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 76. 76 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Hancock Stadium - at
Western Illinois Leathernecks
1-1 · SOS #95
Win 41-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 10.6
Total 59.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 31. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Hanson Field - at
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-2 · SOS #59
Win 28-24
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Northern Illinois by 12.8
Total 48.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 4. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
MW+ Huskie Stadium - vs
Eastern Illinois Panthers
1-3 · SOS #46
Win 49-13
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 16.2
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 36. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Hancock Stadium - at
Northern Iowa Panthers
2-2 · SOS #4
Loss 21-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 14
Total 56.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Northern Iowa by 7. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ UNI-Dome - vs
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
5-1 · SOS #52
Loss 14-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 1.6
Total 55.6
Book line
Not posted
Final South Dakota State by 17. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 6 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBMI)ESPN+ Hancock Stadium - at
Southern Illinois Salukis
3-5 · SOS #30
Win 35-14
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 5.8
Total 54.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 21. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind 7 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMDH)ESPNU Saluki Stadium - vs
Indiana State Sycamores
2-6 · SOS #19
Win 17-10
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 23.6
Total 58.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 7. 27 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 5 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBMI)ESPN+ Hancock Stadium - vs
Murray State Racers
1-7 · SOS #15
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 43-12 · 98%
Our number
Illinois State by 31
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 66°F, Wind 7 mph SE, 17% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Hancock Stadium - at
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
6-3 · SOS #43
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 25-28 · 42%
Our number
North Dakota by 3
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Alerus Center - at
Youngstown State Penguins
6-2 · SOS #24
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 27-32 · 39%
Our number
Youngstown State by 5
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Stambaugh Stadium - vs
South Dakota Coyotes
7-2 · SOS #35
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 28-26 · 56%
Our number
Illinois State by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hancock Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Illinois State Redbirds stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-7.4
Adj. offense
22.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
29.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 35.1 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 16.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.78 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.21 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 185.6 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 220.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 114.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 193.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.13 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.09 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.14 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 43.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 8.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.06 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.64 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 70.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.07 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.13 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.15 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.1% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 35.5% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 25.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 53.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 68.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 55.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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