Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois State 37.6, Eastern Illinois 21.4 at Hancock Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Illinois State wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.2 points and 59 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Eastern Illinois is 1-2, scoring 23.3 and allowing 38.3 points per game (-15 per game). Illinois State is 3-0, scoring 48.3 and allowing 11.3 points per game (+37 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Illinois by 6 and Illinois State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Illinois State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois State by about 14.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Eastern Illinois 13, Illinois State 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.8 points and the total by 3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Illinois / Illinois State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois State -29.5 | 53.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Illinois State -29.5 | 53.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Illinois State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois State -16 | 59.0 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Illinois State -29.5 | 53.5 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Illinois State -27.5 | 54.3 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Illinois State win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Illinois State -16.2 · market Illinois State -29.5 · difference -13.3 pts (Illinois State view)
- Total
- model 59.0 · market 53.5 · difference +5.5
Model margin is 13.3 pts more toward Eastern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Illinois 21.4, Illinois State 37.6 | Illinois State 86%right winner | 19.8 | 3.0 |
| New formula | Eastern Illinois 12.6, Illinois State 44.7 | Illinois State 98%right winner | 3.9 | 4.6 |
Final: Eastern Illinois 13, Illinois State 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Illinois vs Illinois State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.5 | 30.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.2 | 25.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.13 | 5.89 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 5.91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.9 | 171.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 166.3 | 229.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8 | 144.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.8 | 236.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.36 | 1.35 |
| Sacks per game | 1.09 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.82 | 1.06 |
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 38.3% | 45.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% | 42.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 14.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 9.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38 | 1.27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81 | 1.54 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0 | 68.1 |
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3% | 45.6% |
| Passing success rate | 36.1% | 45.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5% | 15.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 36.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8% | 31.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4% | 45.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 40.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.6% | 19.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.7% | 23.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Illinois schedule · Illinois State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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