Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Dakota 28, Illinois State 25 at Alerus Center in Week 10. That is a lean: North Dakota wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Illinois State is 6-2 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+18.8 per game). North Dakota is 6-3 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 25.2 points per game (+9.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois State by 19 and North Dakota by 26 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota by about 1. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Illinois State vs North Dakota: stat comparison
| Stat | Illinois State | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.1 | 35.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3 | 25.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.78 | 6.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21 | 4.99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.6 | 207.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.0 | 230.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 114.6 | 136.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.5 | 177.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.78 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.44 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.13 | 1.89 |
| Stat | Illinois State | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.14 | -0.07 |
| Success rate | 43.7% | 44.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2% | 35.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 14.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.9% | 8.8% |
| Havoc rate | 15.1% | 16.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.06 | 3.61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.64 | 3.57 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.1 | 71.2 |
| Stat | Illinois State | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.13 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.6% | 47.7% |
| Passing success rate | 42.8% | 42.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.5% | 34.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.6% | 24.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.8% | 40.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.0% | 34.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.1% | 60.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.2% | 55.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Illinois State schedule · North Dakota schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.