2026 schedule
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
2026 season so far
North Dakota is 6-3 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.1 and allowing 25.2 points per game (+9.9 per game).
North Dakota plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Youngstown State in Week 9. We project North Dakota 30, Youngstown State 33 — North Dakota wins 41% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Long Island University Sharks
0-1 · SOS #59
Win 42-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Dakota by 15
Total 43.2
DraftKings
UND -27.5
Total 44.5
Final North Dakota by 21. Long Island University beat the spread. 63 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota -27.5 · O/U 44.5 · model vs market -12.5 pts (North Dakota view)
ESPN+ Alerus Center - vs
St. Thomas Tommies
1-1 · SOS #127
Win 62-26
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Dakota by 18.2
Total 51.6
DraftKings
UND -28.5
Total 53.5
Final North Dakota by 36. North Dakota beat the spread. 88 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota -28.5 (open North Dakota -27.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · model vs market -10.3 pts (North Dakota view)
ESPN+ Alerus Center - at
Portland State Vikings
0-3 · SOS #8
Win 47-23
Week 2
Our number· pregame
North Dakota by 13
Total 57.8
DraftKings
UND -25.5
Total 60.5
Final North Dakota by 24. Portland State beat the spread. 70 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota -25.5 · O/U 60.5 (open 58.5) · ML -4000 / +1180 · Portland State 7% no-vig · model vs market +12.5 pts, +12 pct pts (Portland State view)
ESPN+ Hillsboro Stadium - at
Nebraska Cornhuskers
3-0 · SOS #31
Loss 7-34
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Nebraska by 35.1
Total 64.3
DraftKings
NEB -27.5
Total 56.5
Final Nebraska by 27. North Dakota beat the spread. 41 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nebraska -27.25 (open Nebraska -24.25) · O/U 56.5 (open 51.25) · ML +1150 / -2650 · Nebraska 92% no-vig · model vs market +7.9 pts, +7 pct pts (Nebraska view)
BTN Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) - at
Indiana State Sycamores
2-3 · SOS #19
Win 42-35
Week 4
Our number· pregame
North Dakota by 13.5
Total 59.1
DraftKings
UND -17.5
Total 54.5
Final North Dakota by 7. Indiana State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota -17.5 (open North Dakota -16.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 57.5) · ML -1320 / +710 · Indiana State 12% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +7 pct pts (Indiana State view)
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) - vs
Murray State Racers
1-5 · SOS #15
Win 55-28
Week 5
Our number· pregame
North Dakota by 34.7
Total 58.9
DraftKings
UND -37.5
Total 56.5
Final North Dakota by 27. Murray State beat the spread. 83 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota -37.5 (open North Dakota -35.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 60.5) · model vs market -2.8 pts (North Dakota view)
ESPN+ Alerus Center - at
Northern Iowa Panthers
3-2 · SOS #4
Loss 17-24
Week 6
Our number· pregame
North Dakota by 8.7
Total 59.1
DraftKings
UND -13.5
Total 58.5
Final Northern Iowa by 7. Northern Iowa beat the spread. 41 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota -13.5 (open North Dakota -11.5) · O/U 58.5 · ML -468 / +337 · Northern Iowa 22% no-vig · model vs market +4.8 pts, +7 pct pts (Northern Iowa view)
ESPN+ UNI-Dome - vs
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
5-2 · SOS #52
Win 21-10
Week 7
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 5.9
Total 57.1
DraftKings
SDST -14
Total 56.5
Final North Dakota by 11. North Dakota beat the spread. 31 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -14 (open South Dakota State -11.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML -579 / +400 · North Dakota 19% no-vig · model vs market +8.1 pts, +16 pct pts (North Dakota view)
ESPN+ Alerus Center - at
South Dakota Coyotes
7-2 · SOS #35
Loss 23-26
Week 8
Our number· pregame
South Dakota by 2.6
Total 58.2
Book line
Not posted
Final South Dakota by 3. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ The DakotaDome - at
Youngstown State Penguins
6-2 · SOS #24
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-33 · 41%
Our number
Youngstown State by 3
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Stambaugh Stadium - vs
Illinois State Redbirds
6-2 · SOS #89
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 28-25 · 58%
Our number
North Dakota by 3
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Alerus Center - vs
Southern Illinois Salukis
4-5 · SOS #30
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 33-21 · 79%
Our number
North Dakota by 12
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Alerus Center
Times shown in your local time
North Dakota Fighting Hawks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-6.4
Adj. offense
24.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
30.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 35.1 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 25.2 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.15 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.99 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 207.7 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 230.1 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 136.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 177.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.11 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.78 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.44 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.89 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.08 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.07 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 44.3% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 35.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 8.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.61 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.57 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 7 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 71.2 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.08 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.08 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.7% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.9% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.1% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 34.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 24.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 34.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 60.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 55.9% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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