Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Dakota State 31.5, North Dakota 25.6 at Alerus Center in Week 7. That is a lean: South Dakota State wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 57 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
South Dakota State is 5-1, scoring 40.8 and allowing 16 points per game (+24.8 per game). North Dakota is 5-2, scoring 38.9 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+11.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Dakota State by 28 and North Dakota by 17 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Dakota State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Dakota State 10, North Dakota 21. North Dakota won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Dakota State / North Dakota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Dakota State -11.5 → South Dakota State -14 | 56.5 | -579 / +400 |
| DraftKings | South Dakota State -11.5 → South Dakota State -14 | 56.5 | -579 / +400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Dakota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Dakota State -6 | 57.0 | 35% |
| Market consensus | South Dakota State -14 | 56.5 | 19% |
| Blended projection | South Dakota State -12.5 | 56.8 | 19% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Dakota win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 19% · difference +16 pts
- Margin
- model South Dakota State -5.9 · market South Dakota State -14 · difference +8.1 pts (North Dakota view)
- Total
- model 57.0 · market 56.5 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward North Dakota than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Dakota State 31.5, North Dakota 25.6 | South Dakota State 65%wrong winner | 16.9 | 26.0 |
| New formula | South Dakota State 31.2, North Dakota 25.4 | South Dakota State 65%wrong winner | 16.8 | 25.7 |
Final: South Dakota State 10, North Dakota 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Dakota State vs North Dakota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Dakota State | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.6 | 32.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.9 | 19.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.56 | 5.74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21 | 4.99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.6 | 200.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.8 | 189.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 132.3 | 121.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.8 | 207.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.64 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92 | 2.86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25 | 1.14 |
| Stat | South Dakota State | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11 | -0.13 |
| Success rate | 43.5% | 42.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 35.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| Havoc rate | 14.8% | 15.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 11.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.87 | 3.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.54 | 2.25 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.8 | 68.0 |
| Stat | South Dakota State | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11 | -0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.7% | 44.5% |
| Passing success rate | 43.8% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.3% | 30.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5% | 25.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7% | 39.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.9% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 13.7% | 45.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 8.9% | 37.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Dakota State schedule · North Dakota schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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