2026 schedule
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2026 season so far
South Dakota State is 6-2 against the 52nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.1 and allowing 15.8 points per game (+21.3 per game).
South Dakota State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs South Dakota in Week 9. We project South Dakota State 30, South Dakota 23 — South Dakota State wins 68% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Stetson Hatters
0-1 · SOS #110
Win 70-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 24.7
Total 54.9
DraftKings
SDST -50.5
Total 58.5
Final South Dakota State by 63. South Dakota State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -50.5 (open South Dakota State -47.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 56.5) · model vs market -25.8 pts (South Dakota State view)
ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium - at
Northwestern Wildcats
1-0 · SOS #44
Loss 18-34
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 27.2
Total 48.2
DraftKings
NU -14
Total 49.5
Final Northwestern by 16. Northwestern beat the spread. 52 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -13.25 (open Northwestern -12.5) · O/U 49 (open 46.25) · ML +407.5 / -562.5 · Northwestern 81% no-vig · model vs market +14.0 pts, +15 pct pts (Northwestern view)
BTN Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium - vs
New Haven Chargers
1-2 · SOS #74
Win 57-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 21.2
Total 53
DraftKings
SDST -42.5
Total 54.5
Final South Dakota State by 43. South Dakota State beat the spread. 71 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -42.5 (open South Dakota State -44.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 55.5) · model vs market -21.3 pts (South Dakota State view)
ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium - vs
Youngstown State Penguins
2-2 · SOS #24
Win 27-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 4.7
Total 64.3
DraftKings
SDST -9.5
Total 59.5
Final South Dakota State by 7. Youngstown State beat the spread. 47 points — under the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -9.5 (open South Dakota State -10) · O/U 59.5 · ML +271 / -361 · South Dakota State 74% no-vig · model vs market -4.8 pts, -12 pct pts (South Dakota State view)
ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium - vs
Eastern Illinois Panthers
1-4 · SOS #46
Win 42-7
Week 4
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 27.8
Total 57
DraftKings
SDST -34.5
Total 53.5
Final South Dakota State by 35. South Dakota State beat the spread. 49 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -34.5 · O/U 53.5 · model vs market -6.7 pts (South Dakota State view)
Game-time weather: Fog/mist, 64°F, Wind 8 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBKX)ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium - at
Illinois State Redbirds
4-2 · SOS #89
Win 31-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Illinois State by 1.6
Total 55.6
DraftKings
SDST -2.5
Total 51.5
Final South Dakota State by 17. South Dakota State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -2.5 (open South Dakota State -1.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 55.5) · ML -127 / +102 · Illinois State 47% no-vig · model vs market +4.1 pts, +7 pct pts (Illinois State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 6 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBMI)ESPN+ Hancock Stadium - at
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
6-2 · SOS #43
Loss 10-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 5.9
Total 57.1
DraftKings
SDST -14
Total 56.5
Final North Dakota by 11. North Dakota beat the spread. 31 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -14 (open South Dakota State -11.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML -579 / +400 · North Dakota 19% no-vig · model vs market +8.1 pts, +16 pct pts (North Dakota view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ Alerus Center - vs
Murray State Racers
1-7 · SOS #15
Win 42-9
Week 8
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 38.8
Total 54.6
Book line
Not posted
Final South Dakota State by 33. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 48°F, Wind 13 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBKX)ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium - vs
South Dakota Coyotes
7-2 · SOS #35
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-23 · 68%
Our number
South Dakota State by 7
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 58°F, Wind 10 mph SSE, 7% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPNU Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium - at
Northern Iowa Panthers
3-4 · SOS #4
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 32-16 · 84%
Our number
South Dakota State by 16
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ UNI-Dome - at
Southern Illinois Salukis
4-5 · SOS #30
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 31-19 · 78%
Our number
South Dakota State by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Saluki Stadium - vs
Indiana State Sycamores
2-6 · SOS #19
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 39-14 · 95%
Our number
South Dakota State by 25
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium
Times shown in your local time
South Dakota State Jackrabbits stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-2.9
Adj. offense
24.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
26.9
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 37.1 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 15.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.86 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.02 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 271.5 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 190.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 129.8 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 176.9 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.38 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.63 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.25 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.18 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.04 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 46.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 37.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 9.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 17.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.70 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.62 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.4 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.20 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.17 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | 0.00 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.08 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 50.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 44.4% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 13.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 32.9% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 25.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 35.2% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 41.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 57.3% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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