Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Dakota State 37.1, New Haven 15.9 at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: South Dakota State wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.2 points and 53 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
New Haven is 1-1, scoring 12.5 and allowing 21 points per game (-8.5 per game). South Dakota State is 1-1, scoring 44 and allowing 20.5 points per game (+23.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Haven by 1 and South Dakota State by 44 about 80% of the time.
South Dakota State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Dakota State by about 19.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: New Haven 14, South Dakota State 57. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.8 points and the total by 18.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Haven / South Dakota State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Dakota State -44.5 → South Dakota State -42.5 | 55.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | South Dakota State -44.5 → South Dakota State -42.5 | 55.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Dakota State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Dakota State -21 | 53.0 | 92% |
| Market consensus | South Dakota State -42.5 | 54.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | South Dakota State -39 | 54.9 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Dakota State win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model South Dakota State -21.2 · market South Dakota State -42.5 · difference -21.3 pts (South Dakota State view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 54.5 · difference -1.5
Model margin is 21.3 pts more toward New Haven than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Haven 15.9, South Dakota State 37.1 | South Dakota State 92%right winner | 21.8 | 18.0 |
| New formula | New Haven 10.0, South Dakota State 44.7 | South Dakota State 99%right winner | 8.3 | 16.3 |
Final: New Haven 14, South Dakota State 57. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Haven vs South Dakota State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Haven | South Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.9 | 28.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.6 | 21.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47 | 5.21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.6 | 169.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.0 | 212.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.9 | 132.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.6 | 184.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.22 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.22 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 2.78 | 1.92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.89 | 2.25 |
| Stat | New Haven | South Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 40.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 10.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 14.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 14.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 68.8 |
| Stat | New Haven | South Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | -0.11 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.3% | 43.7% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 43.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 18.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 35.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6% | 28.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 42.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 32.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 13.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 8.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Haven schedule · South Dakota State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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