2026 schedule
New Haven Chargers
2026 season so far
New Haven is 2-6 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.3 and allowing 29 points per game (-13.7 per game).
New Haven plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Duquesne in Week 9. We project New Haven 23, Duquesne 30 — New Haven wins 34% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Marist Red Foxes
0-1 · SOS #154
Win 22-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
New Haven by 2.2
Total 54.6
DraftKings
NH -2.5
Total 46.5
Final New Haven by 1. Marist beat the spread. 43 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Haven -2.5 (open Marist -1.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 44.5) · ML +116 / -145 · New Haven 56% no-vig · model vs market -0.3 pts, -0 pct pts (New Haven view)
Ralph F. DellaCamera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit - vs
Stonehill Skyhawks
1-1 · SOS #114
Loss 3-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
New Haven by 3.9
Total 51.5
DraftKings
NH -6.5
Total 42.5
Final Stonehill by 18. Stonehill beat the spread. 24 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Haven -6.5 (open New Haven -7) · O/U 42.5 (open 41.5) · ML +178 / -226 · New Haven 66% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -6 pct pts (New Haven view)
Ralph F. DellaCamera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2-1 · SOS #52
Loss 14-57
Week 2
Our number· pregame
South Dakota State by 21.2
Total 53
DraftKings
SDST -42.5
Total 54.5
Final South Dakota State by 43. South Dakota State beat the spread. 71 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota State -42.5 (open South Dakota State -44.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 55.5) · model vs market -21.3 pts (South Dakota State view)
ESPN+ Dana J. Dykhouse StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Brown Bears
1-0 · SOS #81
Loss 10-17
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Brown by 3.5
Total 49.7
DraftKings
BRWN -10
Total 50.5
Final Brown by 7. New Haven beat the spread. 27 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Brown -10 (open Brown -9.5) · O/U 50.5 · ML -425 / +311 · New Haven 23% no-vig · model vs market +6.5 pts, +18 pct pts (New Haven view)
Ralph F. DellaCamera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Merrimack Warriors
2-3 · SOS #66
Loss 10-17
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Merrimack by 8.6
Total 48.8
DraftKings
MRMK -10
Total 42.5
Final Merrimack by 7. New Haven beat the spread. 27 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Merrimack -10 (open Merrimack -9.5) · O/U 42.5 (open 46.5) · ML +277 / -372 · Merrimack 75% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -4 pct pts (Merrimack view)
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 55°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLWM)ESPN+ Duane StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
Austin Peay Governors
5-1 · SOS #75
Loss 17-42
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 25.3
Total 54.1
DraftKings
APSU -35.5
Total 50.5
Final Austin Peay by 25. New Haven beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -35.5 · O/U 50.5 · model vs market -10.2 pts (Austin Peay view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 5 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCKV)ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
Robert Morris Colonials
3-4 · SOS #143
Win 26-15
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Robert Morris by 8
Total 49
DraftKings
RMU -9.5
Total 45.5
Final New Haven by 11. New Haven beat the spread. 41 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Robert Morris -9.5 (open Robert Morris -10) · O/U 45.5 (open 46.5) · ML +281 / -378 · Robert Morris 75% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -5 pct pts (Robert Morris view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 48°F, Wind 11 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPIT)ESPN+ Joe Walton StadiumPregame calls · how each did
- at
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
4-3 · SOS #82
Loss 20-42
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Central Connecticut by 12.4
Total 58.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Central Connecticut by 22. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHFD)Arute Field - vs
Duquesne Dukes
3-4 · SOS #91
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 23-30 · 34%
Our number
Duquesne by 7
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 55°F, Wind 9 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Ralph F. DellaCamera StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Long Island University Sharks
3-6 · SOS #59
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 24-21 · 57%
Our number
New Haven by 3
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ralph F. DellaCamera StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Wagner Seahawks
1-7 · SOS #64
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 29-22 · 69%
Our number
New Haven by 7
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Hameline Field at Wagner College StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Mercyhurst Lakers
1-7 · SOS #39
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 28-27 · 53%
Our number
New Haven by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Saxon StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
New Haven Chargers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-29.5
Adj. offense
11.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
40.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 15.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.62 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.17 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 103.5 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 191.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 155.8 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 209.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.13 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.09 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.05 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 35.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.3% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 18.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.53 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.12 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.07 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.12 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 33.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 33.5% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 26.1% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 24.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.4% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 31.3% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 33.7% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 44.2% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 57.6% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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