Matchup analysis
Our model projects Duquesne 30, New Haven 23 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Duquesne wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.4 points and 53.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Duquesne is 3-4 against the 31st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.9 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-6.2 per game). New Haven is 2-6 against the 88th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.3 and allowing 29 points per game (-13.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Duquesne by 29 and New Haven by 16 about 80% of the time.
New Haven gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Duquesne is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Duquesne vs New Haven: stat comparison
| Stat | Duquesne | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9 | 15.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.1 | 29.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 4.62 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72 | 6.17 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.3 | 103.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 154.7 | 191.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 194.3 | 155.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.4 | 209.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.43 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29 | 1.75 |
| Stat | Duquesne | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 38.4% | 35.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9% | 40.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 13.3% |
| Havoc rate | 14.2% | 14.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1% | 18.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.76 | 2.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.71 | 3.72 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 18 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.6 | 63.9 |
| Stat | Duquesne | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.0% | 33.0% |
| Passing success rate | 33.3% | 33.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 26.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.7% | 24.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.1% | 31.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.0% | 33.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.9% | 44.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.1% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duquesne schedule · New Haven schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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