Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Merrimack 28.7, New Haven 20.1 at Duane Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Merrimack wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.6 points and 48.8 combined points.
New Haven is 1-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 29 points per game (-16.7 per game). Merrimack is 1-3, scoring 14.3 and allowing 33.8 points per game (-19.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Haven by 14 and Merrimack by 31 about 80% of the time.
Merrimack gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Merrimack by about 6.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: New Haven 10, Merrimack 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.6 points and the total by 21.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Haven / Merrimack) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Merrimack -9.5 → Merrimack -10 | 46.5 → 42.5 | +277 / -372 |
| DraftKings | Merrimack -9.5 → Merrimack -10 | 46.5 → 42.5 | +277 / -372 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Merrimack win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Merrimack -8.5 | 48.8 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Merrimack -10 | 42.5 | 75% |
| Blended projection | Merrimack -10 | 44.2 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Merrimack win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Merrimack -8.6 · market Merrimack -10 · difference -1.4 pts (Merrimack view)
- Total
- model 48.8 · market 42.5 · difference +6.3
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward New Haven than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Haven 20.1, Merrimack 28.7 | Merrimack 71%right winner | 1.6 | 21.8 |
| New formula | New Haven 19.5, Merrimack 28.9 | Merrimack 73%right winner | 2.4 | 21.4 |
Final: New Haven 10, Merrimack 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Haven vs Merrimack: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Haven | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.9 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.6 | 24.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 5.02 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47 | 6.77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.6 | 194.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.0 | 144.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.9 | 183.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.6 | 218.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.22 | 0.55 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.78 | 1.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.89 | 1.73 |
| Stat | New Haven | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 36.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 43.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 16.7% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 67.5 |
| Stat | New Haven | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.3% | 39.4% |
| Passing success rate | 40.3% | 32.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6% | 27.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 39.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 34.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 43.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 52.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Haven schedule · Merrimack schedule · all Week 4 projections
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