2026 schedule
Merrimack Warriors
2026 season so far
Merrimack is 3-5 against the 66th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-10.9 per game).
Merrimack plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Wagner in Week 9. We project Merrimack 31, Wagner 16 — Merrimack wins 85% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Rhode Island Rams
1-0 · SOS #88
Loss 7-34
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Rhode Island by 5.8
Total 51
DraftKings
URI -21
Total 47.5
Final Rhode Island by 27. Rhode Island beat the spread. 41 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Rhode Island -21 (open Rhode Island -20.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 53.5) · ML -1960 / +890 · Merrimack 10% no-vig · model vs market +15.2 pts, +26 pct pts (Merrimack view)
ESPN+ Duane StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Delaware Blue Hens
1-0 · SOS #116
Loss 7-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Delaware by 29.7
Total 53.7
DraftKings
DEL -31.5
Total 56.5
Final Delaware by 35. Delaware beat the spread. 49 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Delaware -31.5 (open Delaware -28.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 55.5) · ML +2200 / -8000 · Delaware 96% no-vig · model vs market -1.8 pts, +2 pct pts (Delaware view)
ESPN+ Delaware StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - at
Maine Black Bears
1-2 · SOS #63
Win 23-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Maine by 8.3
Total 45.1
DraftKings
ME -10
Total 47.5
Final Merrimack by 9. Merrimack beat the spread. 37 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Maine -10 · O/U 47.5 · ML +314 / -431 · Maine 77% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, -6 pct pts (Maine view)
Harold Alfond Sports StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - at
Tarleton State Texans
4-0 · SOS #96
Loss 20-45
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 12.7
Total 47.5
DraftKings
TAR -32.5
Total 54.5
Final Tarleton State by 25. Merrimack beat the spread. 65 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -32.5 (open Tarleton State -34.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 58.5) · model vs market -19.8 pts (Tarleton State view)
ESPN+ Tarleton Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - vs
New Haven Chargers
1-4 · SOS #74
Win 17-10
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Merrimack by 8.6
Total 48.8
DraftKings
MRMK -10
Total 42.5
Final Merrimack by 7. New Haven beat the spread. 27 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Merrimack -10 (open Merrimack -9.5) · O/U 42.5 (open 46.5) · ML +277 / -372 · Merrimack 75% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -4 pct pts (Merrimack view)
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 55°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLWM)ESPN+ Duane StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
Yale Bulldogs
2-1 · SOS #83
Loss 24-41
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Yale by 21.5
Total 51.7
DraftKings
YALE -14
Total 48.5
Final Yale by 17. Yale beat the spread. 65 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Yale -14 (open Yale -12.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 51.5) · ML +389 / -559 · Yale 81% no-vig · model vs market +7.5 pts, +12 pct pts (Yale view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 8 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHVN)ESPN+ Yale BowlPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Dartmouth Big Green
2-3 · SOS #51
Loss 21-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Dartmouth by 10.6
Total 43.6
DraftKings
DART -10.5
Total 44.5
Final Dartmouth by 6. Merrimack beat the spread. 48 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Dartmouth -10.5 (open Dartmouth -11.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 47.5) · ML +312 / -427 · Dartmouth 77% no-vig · model vs market +0.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Dartmouth view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 45°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLEB)ESPN+ Memorial Field (Dartmouth)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - vs
New Hampshire Wildcats
2-7 · SOS #77
Win 24-17
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Merrimack by 10.1
Total 48.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Merrimack by 7. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 55°F, Wind 3 mph.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLWM)ESPN+ Duane StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Wagner Seahawks
1-7 · SOS #64
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 31-16 · 85%
Our number
Merrimack by 15
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 52°F, Wind 8 mph NW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Duane StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
#14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6-1 · SOS #47
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 3-44 · 0%
Our number
Wake Forest by 41
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ACC Network Allegacy Federal Credit Union StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games - at
Monmouth Hawks
6-2 · SOS #101
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 22-34 · 21%
Our number
Monmouth by 12
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kessler Stadium - vs
Sacred Heart Pioneers
3-4 · SOS #149
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 25-22 · 58%
Our number
Merrimack by 3
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Duane StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Merrimack Warriors stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-25.8
Adj. offense
11.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
37.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 17.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 28.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.83 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.92 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 177.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 194.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 111.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 251.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.03 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.9% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.2% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.09 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.09 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.00 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.08 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.06 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 41.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 38.3% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.7% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.4% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 34.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 54.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 77.8% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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