Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Yale 36.6, Merrimack 15.1 at Yale Bowl in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Yale wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.5 points and 51.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Merrimack is 2-3, scoring 14.8 and allowing 29 points per game (-14.2 per game). Yale is 1-1, scoring 31.5 and allowing 33 points per game (-1.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Merrimack by 1 and Yale by 44 about 80% of the time.
Yale gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Yale by about 19.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Merrimack 24, Yale 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.5 points and the total by 13.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Merrimack / Yale) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Yale -12.5 → Yale -14 | 51.5 → 48.5 | +389 / -559 |
| DraftKings | Yale -12.5 → Yale -14 | 51.5 → 48.5 | +389 / -559 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Yale win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Yale -21.5 | 51.7 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Yale -14 | 48.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Yale -15.5 | 49.6 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Yale win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Yale -21.5 · market Yale -14 · difference +7.5 pts (Yale view)
- Total
- model 51.7 · market 48.5 · difference +3.2
Model margin is 7.5 pts more toward Yale than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Merrimack 15.1, Yale 36.6 | Yale 92%right winner | 4.5 | 13.3 |
| New formula | Merrimack 16.1, Yale 35.5 | Yale 89%right winner | 2.5 | 13.4 |
Final: Merrimack 24, Yale 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Merrimack vs Yale: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Merrimack | Yale |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 29.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 19.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.02 | 5.97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 5.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 194.0 | 185.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.6 | 219.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.6 | 146.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.0 | 216.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.55 | 1.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.09 | 2.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Yale |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 36.6% | 42.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3% | 37.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.7% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 14.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 12.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 67.8 |
| Stat | Merrimack | Yale |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4% | 40.7% |
| Passing success rate | 32.8% | 45.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0% | 33.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4% | 26.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8% | 46.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.8% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.1% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Merrimack schedule · Yale schedule · all Week 5 projections
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