2026 schedule
Yale Bulldogs
2026 season so far
Yale is 3-3 against the 83rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27 points per game (+2.3 per game).
Yale plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Columbia in Week 9. We project Yale 32, Columbia 23 — Yale wins 73% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
10 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Holy Cross Crusaders
0-4 · SOS #69
Win 38-28
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Holy Cross by 0.6
Total 48.6
DraftKings
YALE -21
Total 50.5
Final Yale by 10. Holy Cross beat the spread. 66 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Yale -21 (open Yale -18.5) · O/U 50.5 · ML -1640 / +800 · Holy Cross 11% no-vig · model vs market +21.6 pts, +41 pct pts (Holy Cross view)
ESPN+ Fitton Field - at
Cornell Big Red
1-1 · SOS #44
Loss 25-38
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Yale by 5.6
Total 54.6
DraftKings
YALE -14
Total 48.5
Final Cornell by 13. Cornell beat the spread. 63 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Yale -14 (open Yale -15.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML -376 / +280 · Cornell 25% no-vig · model vs market +8.4 pts, +11 pct pts (Cornell view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 63°F, Wind 14 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KITH)ESPN+ Schoellkopf Field - vs
Merrimack Warriors
2-4 · SOS #66
Win 41-24
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Yale by 21.5
Total 51.7
DraftKings
YALE -14
Total 48.5
Final Yale by 17. Yale beat the spread. 65 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Yale -14 (open Yale -12.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 51.5) · ML +389 / -559 · Yale 81% no-vig · model vs market +7.5 pts, +12 pct pts (Yale view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 8 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHVN)ESPN+ Yale Bowl - vs
Dartmouth Big Green
1-3 · SOS #51
Win 28-7
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Yale by 8.3
Total 55.9
DraftKings
YALE -7
Total 53.5
Final Yale by 21. Yale beat the spread. 35 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Yale -7 (open Yale -6) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · ML +249 / -329 · Yale 73% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, -2 pct pts (Yale view)
Game-time weather: 66°F, Wind 5 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHVN)ESPNU Yale Bowl - vs
Rhode Island Rams
4-3 · SOS #88
Loss 23-41
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Yale by 7.8
Total 53.4
DraftKings
YALE -12.5
Total 48.5
Final Rhode Island by 18. Rhode Island beat the spread. 64 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Yale -12.5 (open Yale -10) · O/U 48.5 (open 50.5) · ML +343 / -478 · Yale 79% no-vig · model vs market -4.7 pts, -9 pct pts (Yale view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F, Wind 14 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHVN)ESPN+ Yale Bowl - at
Pennsylvania Quakers
3-3 · SOS #97
Loss 21-24
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Yale by 5.6
Total 52.2
DraftKings
YALE -5.5
Total 49.5
Final Pennsylvania by 3. Pennsylvania beat the spread. 45 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Yale -5.5 (open Yale -4.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML -198 / +157 · Pennsylvania 37% no-vig · model vs market -0.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Pennsylvania view)
Game-time weather: 52°F, Wind 5 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHL)ESPNU Franklin Field - at
Columbia Lions
4-2 · SOS #119
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 32-23 · 73%
Our number
Yale by 9
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 57°F, Wind 7 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Lawrence A. Wien Stadium - vs
Brown Bears
3-3 · SOS #81
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 30-21 · 72%
Our number
Yale by 9
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Yale Bowl - vs
Princeton Tigers
4-2 · SOS #128
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-21 · 67%
Our number
Yale by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Yale Bowl - vs
Harvard Crimson
6-0 · SOS #100
Sat, Nov 21, 8:30 PM
Week 12
Proj 25-29 · 38%
Our number
Harvard by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPNU Fenway Park
Times shown in your local time
Yale Bulldogs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-14.6
Adj. offense
20.3
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
34.9
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 29.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 27.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.06 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.35 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 176.7 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 287.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 127.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 181.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.33 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.17 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 0.83 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.17 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.05 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.01 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 33.9% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.0% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.9% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.3% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 76.5 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.11 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.06 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 41.2% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 32.7% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 24.2% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 44.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 26.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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