Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Holy Cross 24.6, Yale 24 at Fitton Field in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Holy Cross wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 48.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Yale has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Holy Cross is 0-3, scoring 9 and allowing 38.3 points per game (-29.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Yale by 22 and Holy Cross by 23 about 80% of the time.
Holy Cross gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Yale would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Yale 38, Holy Cross 28. Yale won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Yale / Holy Cross) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Yale -18.5 → Yale -21 | 50.5 | -1640 / +800 |
| DraftKings | Yale -18.5 → Yale -21 | 50.5 | -1640 / +800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Holy Cross win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Holy Cross -0.5 | 48.6 | 52% |
| Market consensus | Yale -21 | 50.5 | 11% |
| Blended projection | Yale -17.5 | 51.2 | 12% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Holy Cross win probability
- model 52% · market (no-vig) 11% · difference +41 pts
- Margin
- model Holy Cross -0.6 · market Yale -21 · difference +21.6 pts (Holy Cross view)
- Total
- model 48.6 · market 50.5 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 21.6 pts more toward Holy Cross than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Yale 24.0, Holy Cross 24.6 | Holy Cross 52%wrong winner | 10.6 | 17.4 |
| New formula | Yale 31.3, Holy Cross 22.5 | Yale 70%right winner | 1.1 | 12.2 |
Final: Yale 38, Holy Cross 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Yale vs Holy Cross: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Yale | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.3 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6 | 24.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.97 | 4.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39 | 5.87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.3 | 168.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.6 | 144.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.2 | 191.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 213.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 2.83 |
| Stat | Yale | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 42.1% | 35.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 37.5% | 41.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 9.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 14.9% | 14.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.51 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Yale | Holy Cross |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.23 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.7% | 38.7% |
| Passing success rate | 45.3% | 30.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.4% | 24.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 28.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2% | 32.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 33.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 52.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 57.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Yale schedule · Holy Cross schedule · all Week 3 projections
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