2026 schedule
Holy Cross Crusaders
2026 season so far
Holy Cross is 3-5 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.9 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-6.9 per game).
Holy Cross plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Richmond in Week 9. We project Holy Cross 25, Richmond 22 — Holy Cross wins 58% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
1-0 · SOS #155
Loss 10-35
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Lehigh by 7.1
Total 46.3
DraftKings
LEH -14
Total 47.5
Final Lehigh by 25. Lehigh beat the spread. 45 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lehigh -14 · O/U 47.5 · ML -800 / +509 · Holy Cross 16% no-vig · model vs market +6.9 pts, +17 pct pts (Holy Cross view)
ESPN+ Fitton FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Colgate Raiders
2-0 · SOS #85
Loss 10-35
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Colgate by 3.3
Total 54.3
DraftKings
COLG -4.5
Total 49.5
Final Colgate by 25. Colgate beat the spread. 45 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colgate -4.5 · O/U 49.5 (open 47.5) · ML +147 / -185 · Colgate 62% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -3 pct pts (Colgate view)
ESPN+ Andy Kerr StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Miami (OH) RedHawks
1-1 · SOS #121
Loss 7-45
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 34.5
Total 47.1
DraftKings
M-OH -30.5
Total 46.5
Final Miami (OH) by 38. Miami (OH) beat the spread. 52 points — over the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami (OH) -30.5 · O/U 46.75 (open 49.75) · ML +2000 / -6500 · Miami (OH) 95% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +3 pct pts (Miami (OH) view)
ESPN+ Yager StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitNon-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5 - vs
Yale Bulldogs
1-0 · SOS #142
Loss 28-38
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Holy Cross by 0.6
Total 48.6
DraftKings
YALE -21
Total 50.5
Final Yale by 10. Holy Cross beat the spread. 66 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Yale -21 (open Yale -18.5) · O/U 50.5 · ML -1640 / +800 · Holy Cross 11% no-vig · model vs market +21.6 pts, +41 pct pts (Holy Cross view)
ESPN+ Fitton FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Lafayette Leopards
1-3 · SOS #131
Win 38-30
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Lafayette by 7.4
Total 56.6
DraftKings
LAF -4
Total 46.5
Final Holy Cross by 8. Holy Cross beat the spread. 68 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lafayette -4 (open Lafayette -5.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 50.5) · ML +143 / -180 · Lafayette 61% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +8 pct pts (Lafayette view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KABE)ESPN+ Fisher Stadium - at
William & Mary Tribe
2-4 · SOS #91
Win 41-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
William & Mary by 0.6
Total 58.6
DraftKings
W&M -6
Total 54.5
Final Holy Cross by 27. Holy Cross beat the spread. 55 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: William & Mary -6 (open William & Mary -6.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 49.5) · ML +170 / -216 · William & Mary 65% no-vig · model vs market -5.4 pts, -13 pct pts (William & Mary view)
Game-time weather: Fog/mist, 63°F, Wind 5 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHF)ESPN+ Walter J. Zable StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesShort home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: missed (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open - at
Harvard Crimson
5-0 · SOS #114
Loss 7-30
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 17.1
Total 53.1
DraftKings
HARV -15.5
Total 45.5
Final Harvard by 23. Harvard beat the spread. 37 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Harvard -15.5 · O/U 45.5 (open 50.5) · ML +487 / -750 · Harvard 84% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +3 pct pts (Harvard view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 48°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBOS)ESPN+ Harvard StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit - vs
Bucknell Bison
1-7 · SOS #128
Win 34-3
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Holy Cross by 14
Total 47.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Holy Cross by 31. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 6 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KORH)ESPN+ Fitton FieldPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Richmond Spiders
6-2 · SOS #116
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 25-22 · 58%
Our number
Holy Cross by 3
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 54°F, Wind 7 mph NW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Fitton FieldExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Georgetown Hoyas
3-4 · SOS #143
Sat, Nov 7, 5:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 27-22 · 64%
Our number
Holy Cross by 5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Cooper FieldExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Villanova Wildcats
4-4 · SOS #87
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 25-26 · 48%
Our number
Villanova by 1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Fitton FieldExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games - vs
Fordham Rams
2-7 · SOS #40
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 31-18 · 81%
Our number
Holy Cross by 13
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Fitton FieldLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Holy Cross Crusaders stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-21.6
Adj. offense
15.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.7
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 21.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 28.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.54 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.50 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 142.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 205.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 142.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 260.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.01 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.13 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.9% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.1% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.8% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.0% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.3% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.69 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.01 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 7 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 6 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.27 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 43.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 37.5% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.1% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 24.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 37.4% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 40.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 63.4% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 56.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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