Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colgate 28.8, Holy Cross 25.5 at Andy Kerr Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Colgate wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 54.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Holy Cross is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 35 points per game (-25 per game). Colgate is 1-0, scoring 24 and allowing 14 points per game (+10 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Holy Cross by 19 and Colgate by 26 about 80% of the time.
Colgate gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colgate by about 1.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Holy Cross 10, Colgate 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.7 points and the total by 9.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Holy Cross / Colgate) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Colgate -4.5 | 47.5 → 49.5 | +147 / -185 |
| DraftKings | Colgate -4.5 | 47.5 → 49.5 | +147 / -185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colgate win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Colgate -3.5 | 54.2 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Colgate -4.5 | 49.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Colgate -4.5 | 50.6 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colgate win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Colgate -3.3 · market Colgate -4.5 · difference -1.2 pts (Colgate view)
- Total
- model 54.2 · market 49.5 · difference +4.7
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Holy Cross than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Holy Cross 25.5, Colgate 28.8 | Colgate 59%right winner | 21.7 | 9.2 |
| New formula | Holy Cross 20.9, Colgate 32.5 | Colgate 76%right winner | 13.4 | 8.4 |
Final: Holy Cross 10, Colgate 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Holy Cross vs Colgate: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Holy Cross | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 28.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 4.82 | 5.76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.87 | 6.23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.3 | 138.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.4 | 264.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.6 | 170.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.8 | 237.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.09 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 1.64 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 35.2% | 43.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 45.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4% | 11.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.6% |
| Havoc rate | 14.4% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 13.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51 | 4.91 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 69.9 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 47.7% |
| Passing success rate | 30.8% | 42.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 16.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 35.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7% | 32.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 44.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.5% | 50.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.1% | 56.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.2% | 68.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Holy Cross schedule · Colgate schedule · all Week 1 projections
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