2026 schedule
Colgate Raiders
2026 season so far
Colgate is 4-4 against the 84th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.6 and allowing 15.6 points per game (+4 per game).
Colgate plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs William & Mary in Week 9. We project Colgate 34, William & Mary 16 — Colgate wins 88% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Fordham Rams
0-1 · SOS #48
Win 24-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Colgate by 4.2
Total 55.2
DraftKings
COLG -8.5
Total 55.5
Final Colgate by 10. Colgate beat the spread. 38 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colgate -8.5 (open Colgate -10) · O/U 55.5 (open 50.5) · ML -318 / +242 · Fordham 28% no-vig · model vs market +4.3 pts, +11 pct pts (Fordham view)
ESPN+ Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: hit · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49% - vs
Holy Cross Crusaders
0-2 · SOS #69
Win 35-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Colgate by 3.3
Total 54.3
DraftKings
COLG -4.5
Total 49.5
Final Colgate by 25. Colgate beat the spread. 45 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colgate -4.5 · O/U 49.5 (open 47.5) · ML +147 / -185 · Colgate 62% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -3 pct pts (Colgate view)
ESPN+ Andy Kerr StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Central Michigan Chippewas
1-1 · SOS #71
Loss 10-13
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Central Michigan by 27.7
Total 50.1
DraftKings
CMU -18.5
Total 48.5
Final Central Michigan by 3. Colgate beat the spread. 23 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Central Michigan -18.5 (open Central Michigan -22.75) · O/U 48.75 (open 49.5) · ML +875 / -1600 · Central Michigan 90% no-vig · model vs market +9.2 pts, +6 pct pts (Central Michigan view)
ESPN+ Kelly/Shorts StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed - vs
Cornell Big Red
0-1 · SOS #44
Win 20-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Colgate by 12
Total 48
DraftKings
COLG -12.5
Total 50.5
Final Colgate by 13. Colgate beat the spread. 27 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colgate -12.5 · O/U 50.5 (open 52.5) · ML +384 / -551 · Colgate 80% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -2 pct pts (Colgate view)
ESPN+ Andy Kerr StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - at
Villanova Wildcats
2-3 · SOS #103
Win 28-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Villanova by 4
Total 45.8
DraftKings
VILL -3
Total 44.5
Final Colgate by 7. Colgate beat the spread. 49 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -3 (open Villanova -2.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 46.5) · ML +118 / -147 · Villanova 56% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Villanova view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 63°F, Wind 11 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHL)ESPN+ Villanova StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - at
Harvard Crimson
3-0 · SOS #100
Loss 17-20
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 15.5
Total 49.1
DraftKings
HARV -4.5
Total 40.5
Final Harvard by 3. Colgate beat the spread. 37 points — under the 40.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Harvard -4.5 · O/U 40.5 (open 36.5) · ML +158 / -200 · Harvard 63% no-vig · model vs market +11.0 pts, +21 pct pts (Harvard view)
Game-time weather: 57°F, Wind 9 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBOS)ESPN+ Harvard StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missedShort home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open - vs
Georgetown Hoyas
2-4 · SOS #121
Loss 17-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Colgate by 19
Total 45
DraftKings
COLG -20.5
Total 43.5
Final Georgetown by 10. Georgetown beat the spread. 44 points — over the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colgate -20.5 (open Colgate -18.5) · O/U 43.5 (open 45.5) · ML +930 / -2200 · Colgate 91% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -1 pct pts (Colgate view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 45°F, Wind 10 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVGC)ESPN+ Andy Kerr StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
Richmond Spiders
6-2 · SOS #129
Loss 6-13
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Colgate by 2.8
Total 46.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Richmond by 7. 19 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 61°F, Wind 3 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOFP)ESPN+ Robins StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
William & Mary Tribe
3-5 · SOS #78
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 34-16 · 88%
Our number
Colgate by 18
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 53°F, Wind 6 mph NW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Andy Kerr StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
6-2 · SOS #131
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 17-29 · 21%
Our number
Lehigh by 12
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Goodman StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games - vs
Lafayette Leopards
3-4 · SOS #126
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 30-21 · 72%
Our number
Colgate by 9
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Andy Kerr Stadium - at
Bucknell Bison
1-7 · SOS #115
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 29-14 · 83%
Our number
Colgate by 15
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Christy Mathewson-Memorial StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Colgate Raiders stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-19.6
Adj. offense
14.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
33.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 19.6 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 15.6 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.01 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.13 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 157.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 180.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 124.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 181.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.75 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.63 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | 0.00 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 37.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.5% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.5% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 17.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.69 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.90 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.4 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.12 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.02 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 26.4% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 46.3% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 43.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 47.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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