Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Central Michigan 38.9, Colgate 11.2 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Central Michigan wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.7 points and 50 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Colgate is 2-0, scoring 29.5 and allowing 12 points per game (+17.5 per game). Central Michigan is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 38 points per game (-31 per game).
Colgate plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Central Michigan's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Michigan by 5 and Central Michigan by 50 about 80% of the time.
Central Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Central Michigan by about 25.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Colgate 10, Central Michigan 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 24.7 points and the total by 27.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colgate / Central Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Central Michigan -22.75 → Central Michigan -18.5 | 49.5 → 48.75 | +875 / -1600 |
| Bovada | Central Michigan -22 → Central Michigan -18.5 | 49.5 → 49 | +850 / -1600 |
| DraftKings | Central Michigan -23.5 → Central Michigan -18.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | +900 / -1600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Central Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Central Michigan -27.5 | 50.0 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Central Michigan -18.5 | 48.8 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Central Michigan -20 | 49.7 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Central Michigan win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Central Michigan -27.7 · market Central Michigan -18.5 · difference +9.2 pts (Central Michigan view)
- Total
- model 50.0 · market 48.75 · difference +1.3
Model margin is 9.2 pts more toward Central Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colgate 11.2, Central Michigan 38.9 | Central Michigan 97%right winner | 24.7 | 27.0 |
| New formula | Colgate 19.3, Central Michigan 33.9 | Central Michigan 81%right winner | 11.6 | 30.2 |
Final: Colgate 10, Central Michigan 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colgate vs Central Michigan: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Colgate | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3 | 22.5#106 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0 | 23.5#55 |
| Yards per play | 5.76 | 5.36#109 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.23 | 5.75#63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.2 | 179.5#58 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.5 | 147.2#127 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 170.4 | 154.0#55 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.2 | 219.6#70 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 1.00#71 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 | 1.38#30 |
| Sacks per game | 1.18 | 2.23#53 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.64 | 1.85#82 |
| Stat | Colgate | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.00#89 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | -0.03#44 |
| Success rate | 43.0% | 42.3%#73 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 40.5%#55 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8% | 11.3%#104 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 13.3%#104 |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 13.4%#49 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 13.4%#106 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.56 | 3.75#92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.91 | 3.42#21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | own 30#73 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | own 30#85 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9 | 60.9#123 |
| Stat | Colgate | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.03#100 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.07#53 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.02#86 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | -0.07#34 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7% | 40.3%#100 |
| Passing success rate | 42.5% | 42.7%#52 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8% | 18.6%#76 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6% | 27.2%#109 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.3% | 28.5%#53 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.3% | 34.6%#122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0% | 42.5%#96 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.5% | 52.3%#114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.1% | 52.8%#23 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colgate schedule · Central Michigan schedule · all Week 2 projections
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