Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colgate 32, Georgetown 13 at Andy Kerr Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Colgate wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19 points and 44.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Georgetown is 1-4, scoring 17.4 and allowing 27.6 points per game (-10.2 per game). Colgate is 4-2, scoring 22.3 and allowing 14.2 points per game (+8.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgetown by 4 and Colgate by 42 about 80% of the time.
Colgate gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colgate by about 16.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Georgetown 27, Colgate 17. Georgetown won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 29 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgetown / Colgate) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Colgate -18.5 → Colgate -20.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +930 / -2200 |
| DraftKings | Colgate -18.5 → Colgate -20.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +930 / -2200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colgate win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Colgate -19 | 44.9 | 89% |
| Market consensus | Colgate -20.5 | 43.5 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Colgate -20.5 | 44.9 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colgate win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Colgate -19 · market Colgate -20.5 · difference -1.5 pts (Colgate view)
- Total
- model 44.9 · market 43.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Georgetown than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgetown 13.0, Colgate 32.0 | Colgate 89%wrong winner | 29.0 | 0.9 |
| New formula | Georgetown 11.7, Colgate 33.8 | Colgate 93%wrong winner | 32.1 | 1.6 |
Final: Georgetown 27, Colgate 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgetown vs Colgate: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Georgetown | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.1 | 28.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 31.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 5.76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.73 | 6.23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.3 | 138.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.1 | 264.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.3 | 170.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.7 | 237.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.09 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17 | 1.18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.50 | 1.64 |
| Stat | Georgetown | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 34.9% | 43.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5% | 45.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 11.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 12.6% |
| Havoc rate | 10.3% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4% | 13.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.87 | 3.56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.08 | 4.91 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.9 | 69.9 |
| Stat | Georgetown | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 47.7% |
| Passing success rate | 35.2% | 42.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.3% | 16.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.0% | 35.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0% | 32.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2% | 44.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.3% | 50.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.0% | 56.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.0% | 68.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgetown schedule · Colgate schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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