Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colgate 34, William & Mary 16 at Andy Kerr Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Colgate wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.6 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
William & Mary is 3-5 against the 91st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.1 and allowing 36 points per game (-14.9 per game). Colgate is 4-4 against the 85th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.6 and allowing 15.6 points per game (+4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between William & Mary by 5 and Colgate by 40 about 80% of the time.
Colgate gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colgate by about 15.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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William & Mary vs Colgate: stat comparison
| Stat | William & Mary | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.1 | 19.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.0 | 15.6 |
| Yards per play | 4.86 | 5.01 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 5.13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.1 | 157.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.0 | 180.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 256.1 | 124.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 217.0 | 181.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Sacks per game | 1.38 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.38 | 2.50 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19 | 0.00 |
| Success rate | 32.8% | 40.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 37.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% | 9.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.2% | 17.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.4% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 2.69 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.66 | 2.90 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 67.4 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Colgate |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.1% | 48.0% |
| Passing success rate | 29.7% | 34.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.1% | 18.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.3% | 30.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8% | 26.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8% | 46.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.5% | 36.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.6% | 43.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.1% | 47.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: William & Mary schedule · Colgate schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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