2026 schedule
William & Mary Tribe
2026 season so far
William & Mary is 3-5 against the 78th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.1 and allowing 36 points per game (-14.9 per game).
William & Mary plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Colgate in Week 9. We project William & Mary 16, Colgate 34 — William & Mary wins 12% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Villanova Wildcats
0-1 · SOS #103
Win 35-32
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Villanova by 9.8
Total 54.2
DraftKings
VILL -12.5
Total 47.5
Final William & Mary by 3. William & Mary beat the spread. 67 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -12.5 (open Villanova -11.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 50.5) · ML +462 / -700 · Villanova 83% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -9 pct pts (Villanova view)
ESPN+ Villanova Stadium - vs
Delaware State Hornets
1-1 · SOS #124
Win 22-15
Week 1
Our number· pregame
William & Mary by 3.6
Total 57.2
DraftKings
W&M -9.5
Total 54.5
Final William & Mary by 7. Delaware State beat the spread. 37 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: William & Mary -9.5 (open William & Mary -10) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.5) · ML +262 / -348 · William & Mary 74% no-vig · model vs market -5.9 pts, -14 pct pts (William & Mary view)
ESPN+ Walter J. Zable Stadium - at
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
3-0 · SOS #131
Loss 20-44
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Lehigh by 11.9
Total 50.5
DraftKings
LEH -13.5
Total 47.5
Final Lehigh by 24. Lehigh beat the spread. 64 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lehigh -13.5 (open Lehigh -11.5) · O/U 47.5 · ML +325 / -449 · Lehigh 78% no-vig · model vs market -1.6 pts, +1 pct pts (Lehigh view)
ESPN+ Goodman Stadium - vs
Fordham Rams
1-3 · SOS #48
Loss 27-52
Week 3
Our number· pregame
William & Mary by 2.2
Total 52.6
DraftKings
W&M -15.5
Total 51.5
Final Fordham by 25. Fordham beat the spread. 79 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: William & Mary -15.5 (open William & Mary -19.5) · O/U 51.5 · ML +780 / -1560 · William & Mary 89% no-vig · model vs market -13.3 pts, -34 pct pts (William & Mary view)
ESPN+ Walter J. Zable Stadium - at
Duke Blue Devils
4-0 · SOS #90
Loss 7-62
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Duke by 35.2
Total 56.2
DraftKings
DUKE -43.5
Total 61.5
Final Duke by 55. Duke beat the spread. 69 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -43 (open Duke -44) · O/U 61.5 (open 61.25) · model vs market -7.8 pts (Duke view)
ACCNX Wallace Wade Stadium - vs
Holy Cross Crusaders
2-4 · SOS #69
Loss 14-41
Week 5
Our number· pregame
William & Mary by 0.6
Total 58.6
DraftKings
W&M -6
Total 54.5
Final Holy Cross by 27. Holy Cross beat the spread. 55 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: William & Mary -6 (open William & Mary -6.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 49.5) · ML +170 / -216 · William & Mary 65% no-vig · model vs market -5.4 pts, -13 pct pts (William & Mary view)
ESPN+ Walter J. Zable Stadium - at
North Carolina Central Eagles
2-5 · SOS #144
Win 17-14
Week 6
Our number· pregame
North Carolina Central by 8.7
Total 60.5
DraftKings
NCCU -2.5
Total 54.5
Final William & Mary by 3. William & Mary beat the spread. 31 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Carolina Central -2.5 (open North Carolina Central -4) · O/U 54.5 (open 58.5) · ML +115 / -144 · North Carolina Central 56% no-vig · model vs market +6.2 pts, +16 pct pts (North Carolina Central view)
ESPN+ O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium - vs
Georgetown Hoyas
3-4 · SOS #121
Loss 27-28
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Georgetown by 1.3
Total 51.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgetown by 1. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Walter J. Zable Stadium - at
Colgate Raiders
4-4 · SOS #84
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 16-34 · 12%
Our number
Colgate by 18
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Andy Kerr Stadium - vs
Lafayette Leopards
3-4 · SOS #126
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 27-31 · 38%
Our number
Lafayette by 4
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Walter J. Zable Stadium - vs
Bucknell Bison
1-7 · SOS #115
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-23 · 63%
Our number
William & Mary by 5
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Walter J. Zable Stadium - at
Richmond Spiders
6-2 · SOS #129
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 18-33 · 16%
Our number
Richmond by 15
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Robins Stadium
Times shown in your local time
William & Mary Tribe stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-37.6
Adj. offense
8.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
46.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 21.1 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 36.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.86 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.77 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 129.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 178.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 256.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 217.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 3.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.12 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.19 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 32.8% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 48.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.9% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.6% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 20.4% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.53 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.66 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.3 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.14 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.11 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.21 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.17 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 38.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 29.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 25.1% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 23.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.8% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 35.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 48.5% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 56.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 54.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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