Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected William & Mary 27.4, Fordham 25.2 at Walter J. Zable Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: William & Mary wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 52.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Fordham is 0-3, scoring 7 and allowing 35.7 points per game (-28.7 per game). William & Mary is 2-1, scoring 25.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-4.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Fordham by 20 and William & Mary by 25 about 80% of the time.
William & Mary gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour William & Mary by about 0.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Fordham 52, William & Mary 27. Fordham won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 27.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Fordham / William & Mary) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | William & Mary -19.5 → William & Mary -15.5 | 51.5 | +780 / -1560 |
| DraftKings | William & Mary -19.5 → William & Mary -15.5 | 51.5 | +780 / -1560 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | William & Mary win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | William & Mary -2 | 52.6 | 56% |
| Market consensus | William & Mary -15.5 | 51.5 | 89% |
| Blended projection | William & Mary -13.5 | 52.2 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- William & Mary win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference -34 pts
- Margin
- model William & Mary -2.2 · market William & Mary -15.5 · difference -13.3 pts (William & Mary view)
- Total
- model 52.6 · market 51.5 · difference +1.1
Model margin is 13.3 pts more toward Fordham than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Fordham 25.2, William & Mary 27.4 | William & Mary 56%wrong winner | 27.2 | 26.4 |
| New formula | Fordham 18.3, William & Mary 33.3 | William & Mary 84%wrong winner | 40.0 | 27.3 |
Final: Fordham 52, William & Mary 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Fordham vs William & Mary: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Fordham | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.9 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.1 | 25.7 |
| Yards per play | 4.85 | 5.76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72 | 5.89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 112.8 | 169.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.3 | 206.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.4 | 198.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 289.4 | 174.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.33 | 2.17 |
| Stat | Fordham | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 35.5% | 41.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 46.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 9.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 11.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.78 | 3.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.74 | 4.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.2 | 65.3 |
| Stat | Fordham | William & Mary |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.24 | +0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.17 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8% | 45.6% |
| Passing success rate | 33.7% | 39.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.5% | 32.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 30.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.6% | 44.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.7% | 45.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9% | 63.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.3% | 59.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fordham schedule · William & Mary schedule · all Week 3 projections
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