Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lehigh 31.2, William & Mary 19.3 at Goodman Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Lehigh wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 50.4 combined points.
William & Mary is 2-0, scoring 28.5 and allowing 23.5 points per game (+5 per game). Lehigh is 2-0, scoring 40 and allowing 12 points per game (+28 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between William & Mary by 11 and Lehigh by 34 about 80% of the time.
Lehigh gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lehigh by about 9.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: William & Mary 20, Lehigh 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.1 points and the total by 13.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (William & Mary / Lehigh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lehigh -11.5 → Lehigh -13.5 | 47.5 | +325 / -449 |
| DraftKings | Lehigh -11.5 → Lehigh -13.5 | 47.5 | +325 / -449 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Lehigh win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Lehigh -12 | 50.4 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Lehigh -13.5 | 47.5 | 78% |
| Blended projection | Lehigh -13.5 | 48.7 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Lehigh win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Lehigh -11.9 · market Lehigh -13.5 · difference -1.6 pts (Lehigh view)
- Total
- model 50.4 · market 47.5 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward William & Mary than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | William & Mary 19.3, Lehigh 31.2 | Lehigh 78%right winner | 12.1 | 13.6 |
| New formula | William & Mary 13.0, Lehigh 40.1 | Lehigh 96%right winner | 3.1 | 10.9 |
Final: William & Mary 20, Lehigh 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
William & Mary vs Lehigh: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | William & Mary | Lehigh |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5 | 31.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 13.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.76 | 6.78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89 | 4.85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.3 | 222.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.8 | 194.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.6 | 89.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.8 | 206.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 3.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Lehigh |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 41.4% | 45.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 38.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 16.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 10.4% |
| Havoc rate | 9.3% | 14.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9% | 10.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 2.24 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 61.6 |
| Stat | William & Mary | Lehigh |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6% | 48.4% |
| Passing success rate | 39.9% | 46.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 33.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6% | 27.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.9% | 46.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 35.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.0% | 35.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: William & Mary schedule · Lehigh schedule · all Week 2 projections
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