Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Carolina Central 34.6, William & Mary 25.9 at O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: North Carolina Central wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 60.4 combined points.
William & Mary is 2-4, scoring 20.8 and allowing 41 points per game (-20.2 per game). North Carolina Central is 2-4, scoring 24.5 and allowing 32.3 points per game (-7.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between William & Mary by 14 and North Carolina Central by 31 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina Central gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Carolina Central by about 6.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: William & Mary 17, North Carolina Central 14. William & Mary won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 11.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (William & Mary / North Carolina Central) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Carolina Central -4 → North Carolina Central -2.5 | 58.5 → 54.5 | +115 / -144 |
| DraftKings | North Carolina Central -4 → North Carolina Central -2.5 | 58.5 → 54.5 | +115 / -144 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina Central win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Carolina Central -8.5 | 60.4 | 72% |
| Market consensus | North Carolina Central -2.5 | 54.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | North Carolina Central -3.5 | 55.3 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina Central win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +16 pts
- Margin
- model North Carolina Central -8.7 · market North Carolina Central -2.5 · difference +6.2 pts (North Carolina Central view)
- Total
- model 60.4 · market 54.5 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 6.2 pts more toward North Carolina Central than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | William & Mary 25.9, North Carolina Central 34.6 | North Carolina Central 72%wrong winner | 11.7 | 29.4 |
| New formula | William & Mary 25.5, North Carolina Central 34.1 | North Carolina Central 71%wrong winner | 11.6 | 28.6 |
Final: William & Mary 17, North Carolina Central 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
William & Mary vs North Carolina Central: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | William & Mary | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5 | 33.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 25.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.76 | 6.51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89 | 6.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.3 | 164.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.8 | 270.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.6 | 168.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.8 | 201.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 3.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 1.92 |
| Stat | William & Mary | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 41.4% | 42.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 39.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 9.3% | 16.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73 | 3.39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 4.68 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 66.8 |
| Stat | William & Mary | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6% | 42.4% |
| Passing success rate | 39.9% | 46.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 33.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6% | 28.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 39.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.0% | 74.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: William & Mary schedule · North Carolina Central schedule · all Week 6 projections
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