2026 schedule
North Carolina Central Eagles
2026 season so far
North Carolina Central is 3-5 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24 and allowing 27.9 points per game (-3.9 per game).
North Carolina Central plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Howard in Week 9. We project North Carolina Central 27, Howard 23 — North Carolina Central wins 59% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Texas Southern Tigers
1-0 · SOS #79
Loss 30-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Carolina Central by 3.8
Total 53.8
DraftKings
NCCU -10.5
Total 51.5
Final Texas Southern by 12. Texas Southern beat the spread. 72 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: North Carolina Central -10.5 (open North Carolina Central -11.5) · O/U 51.5 · ML -453 / +328 · Texas Southern 22% no-vig · model vs market +6.7 pts, +18 pct pts (Texas Southern view)
Shell Energy StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - vs
Elizabeth City State Vikings
0-2 · SOS #158
Win 27-6
Week 1
Our number· pregame
North Carolina Central by 10.3
Total 56.5
Book line
Not posted
Final North Carolina Central by 21. 33 points. No book line was saved for this game.
O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium - vs
North Carolina A&T Aggies
0-3 · SOS #99
Win 30-22
Week 2
Our number· pregame
North Carolina Central by 12.6
Total 55.2
DraftKings
NCCU -24.5
Total 55.5
Final North Carolina Central by 8. North Carolina A&T beat the spread. 52 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Carolina Central -24.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +1040 / -2800 · North Carolina Central 92% no-vig · model vs market -11.9 pts, -12 pct pts (North Carolina Central view)
ESPN+ O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium - at
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
1-3 · SOS #16
Loss 20-44
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Gardner-Webb by 10
Total 52.8
DraftKings
GWEB -7
Total 53.5
Final Gardner-Webb by 24. Gardner-Webb beat the spread. 64 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Gardner-Webb -7 (open Gardner-Webb -3.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 51.5) · ML +236 / -309 · Gardner-Webb 72% no-vig · model vs market +3.0 pts, +3 pct pts (Gardner-Webb view)
ESPN+ Ernest W. Spangler StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open - at
East Carolina Pirates
2-2 · SOS #98
Loss 9-42
Week 4
Our number· pregame
East Carolina by 26.1
Total 53.7
DraftKings
ECU -37.5
Total 58.5
Final East Carolina by 33. North Carolina Central beat the spread. 51 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Carolina -37.5 (open East Carolina -35.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 55.5) · ML +5000 / -100000 · East Carolina 98% no-vig · model vs market -11.4 pts, -2 pct pts (East Carolina view)
Game-time weather: 75°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTRI)ESPN+ Dowdy-Ficklen StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missedNon-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on) - vs
Campbell Fighting Camels
5-1 · SOS #86
Loss 31-38
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Campbell by 1.2
Total 58.4
DraftKings
CAM -13.5
Total 57.5
Final Campbell by 7. North Carolina Central beat the spread. 69 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Campbell -13.5 (open Campbell -8.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 60.5) · ML -524 / +369 · North Carolina Central 20% no-vig · model vs market +12.3 pts, +27 pct pts (North Carolina Central view)
Game-time weather: Fog/mist, 63°F, Wind 8 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRDU)O'Kelly-Riddick StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit - vs
William & Mary Tribe
3-4 · SOS #91
Loss 14-17
Week 6
Our number· pregame
North Carolina Central by 8.7
Total 60.5
DraftKings
NCCU -2.5
Total 54.5
Final William & Mary by 3. William & Mary beat the spread. 31 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Carolina Central -2.5 (open North Carolina Central -4) · O/U 54.5 (open 58.5) · ML +115 / -144 · North Carolina Central 56% no-vig · model vs market +6.2 pts, +16 pct pts (North Carolina Central view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 70°F, Wind 7 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRDU)ESPN+ O'Kelly-Riddick StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Delaware State Hornets
4-4 · SOS #109
Win 31-12
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Delaware State by 3.7
Total 52.9
DraftKings
DSU -5.5
Total 55.5
Final North Carolina Central by 19. North Carolina Central beat the spread. 43 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Delaware State -5.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +179 / -228 · Delaware State 66% no-vig · model vs market -1.8 pts, -6 pct pts (Delaware State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 56°F, Wind 7 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDOV)ESPN2 Alumni Stadium (DE)Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitBounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded gamesFavorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: hit (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last gameHigh-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on) - vs
Howard Bison
4-4 · SOS #35
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 27-23 · 59%
Our number
North Carolina Central by 4
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 66°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ O'Kelly-Riddick StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Norfolk State Spartans
4-4 · SOS #120
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 25-29 · 39%
Our number
Norfolk State by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ William "Dick" Price StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
South Carolina State Bulldogs
6-2 · SOS #139
Sat, Nov 14, 6:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 19-39 · 9%
Our number
South Carolina State by 20
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Oliver C. Dawson StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games - vs
Morgan State Bears
5-3 · SOS #136
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 28-27 · 52%
Our number
North Carolina Central by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
O'Kelly-Riddick StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Times shown in your local time
North Carolina Central Eagles stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-27.7
Adj. offense
12.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
40.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 24.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 27.9 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.26 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.00 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 191.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 149.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 165.4 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 200.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 3.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.05 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.15 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 37.0% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 43.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.9% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 16.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 17.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.37 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.70 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 11 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 10 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.16 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.20 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.10 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 44.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 30.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 27.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 42.7% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.4% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 57.9% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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