Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Campbell 29.8, North Carolina Central 28.6 at O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Campbell wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.2 points and 58.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Campbell is 4-1, scoring 33.2 and allowing 28.4 points per game (+4.8 per game). North Carolina Central is 2-3, scoring 23.2 and allowing 31.2 points per game (-8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Campbell by 24 and North Carolina Central by 21 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina Central gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Campbell is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Campbell 38, North Carolina Central 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.8 points and the total by 10.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Campbell / North Carolina Central) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Campbell -8.5 → Campbell -13.5 | 60.5 → 57.5 | -524 / +369 |
| DraftKings | Campbell -8.5 → Campbell -13.5 | 60.5 → 57.5 | -524 / +369 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina Central win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Campbell -1 | 58.4 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Campbell -13.5 | 57.5 | 20% |
| Blended projection | Campbell -11.5 | 57.8 | 22% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina Central win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 20% · difference +27 pts
- Margin
- model Campbell -1.2 · market Campbell -13.5 · difference +12.3 pts (North Carolina Central view)
- Total
- model 58.4 · market 57.5 · difference +0.9
Model margin is 12.3 pts more toward North Carolina Central than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Campbell 29.8, North Carolina Central 28.6 | Campbell 53%right winner | 5.8 | 10.6 |
| New formula | Campbell 31.0, North Carolina Central 26.7 | Campbell 61%right winner | 2.6 | 11.3 |
Final: Campbell 38, North Carolina Central 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Campbell vs North Carolina Central: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Campbell | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.7 | 33.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.8 | 25.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.29 | 6.51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.47 | 6.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.8 | 164.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 211.0 | 270.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.3 | 168.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 272.0 | 201.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92 | 3.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.92 |
| Stat | Campbell | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 40.7% | 42.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 39.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 9.9% | 16.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.54 | 3.39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.67 | 4.68 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 66.8 |
| Stat | Campbell | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1% | 42.4% |
| Passing success rate | 41.5% | 46.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.3% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8% | 33.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 28.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.5% | 45.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.3% | 39.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.2% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.8% | 74.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Campbell schedule · North Carolina Central schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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