Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Carolina Central 27, Howard 23 at O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: North Carolina Central wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 50.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Howard is 4-4 against the 35th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.4 and allowing 29.9 points per game (-9.5 per game). North Carolina Central is 3-5 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24 and allowing 27.9 points per game (-3.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Howard by 19 and North Carolina Central by 26 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina Central gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Carolina Central by about 1.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Howard vs North Carolina Central: stat comparison
| Stat | Howard | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.4 | 24.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9 | 27.9 |
| Yards per play | 4.66 | 5.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Rushing yards per game | 141.6 | 191.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 148.6 | 149.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.4 | 165.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.4 | 200.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Stat | Howard | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 36.9% | 37.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0% | 43.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 14.5% | 14.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.19 | 3.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.63 | 3.70 |
| Average starting field position | opp 18 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 14 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3 | 64.9 |
| Stat | Howard | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.20 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 44.6% |
| Passing success rate | 31.2% | 30.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 21.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.5% | 27.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7% | 29.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.1% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6% | 42.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 57.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 57.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Howard schedule · North Carolina Central schedule · all Week 9 projections
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