Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Carolina Central 28.8, Texas Southern 25 at Shell Energy Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: North Carolina Central wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 53.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
North Carolina Central has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Texas Southern has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina Central by 26 and Texas Southern by 19 about 80% of the time.
Texas Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Carolina Central is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: North Carolina Central 30, Texas Southern 42. Texas Southern won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Carolina Central / Texas Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Carolina Central -11.5 → North Carolina Central -10.5 | 51.5 | -453 / +328 |
| DraftKings | North Carolina Central -11.5 → North Carolina Central -10.5 | 51.5 | -453 / +328 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Carolina Central -3.5 | 53.8 | 40% |
| Market consensus | North Carolina Central -10.5 | 51.5 | 22% |
| Blended projection | North Carolina Central -9.5 | 52.3 | 26% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas Southern win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 22% · difference +18 pts
- Margin
- model North Carolina Central -3.7 · market North Carolina Central -10.5 · difference +6.8 pts (Texas Southern view)
- Total
- model 53.8 · market 51.5 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 6.8 pts more toward Texas Southern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Carolina Central 28.8, Texas Southern 25.0 | North Carolina Central 60%wrong winner | 15.7 | 18.2 |
| New formula | North Carolina Central 26.5, Texas Southern 27.3 | Texas Southern 52%right winner | 11.2 | 18.1 |
Final: North Carolina Central 30, Texas Southern 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Carolina Central vs Texas Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Carolina Central | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8 | 22.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 24.7 |
| Yards per play | 6.51 | 5.42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02 | 6.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.0 | 180.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 270.3 | 165.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 168.8 | 187.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 201.8 | 198.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58 | 0.80 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 | 1.10 |
| Sacks per game | 3.58 | 0.80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 1.70 |
| Stat | North Carolina Central | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 42.9% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 45.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4% | 10.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 16.4% | 9.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4% | 11.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.39 | 3.36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.68 | 2.36 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.8 | 63.8 |
| Stat | North Carolina Central | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4% | 45.7% |
| Passing success rate | 46.2% | 38.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.5% | 30.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0% | 38.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.5% | 42.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.5% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 74.9% | 49.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina Central schedule · Texas Southern schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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