Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Gardner-Webb 31.4, North Carolina Central 21.4 at Ernest W. Spangler Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Gardner-Webb wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 52.8 combined points.
North Carolina Central is 2-1, scoring 29 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+5.7 per game). Gardner-Webb is 0-3, scoring 17.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-7.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina Central by 13 and Gardner-Webb by 33 about 80% of the time.
Gardner-Webb gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Gardner-Webb by about 7.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Carolina Central 20, Gardner-Webb 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14 points and the total by 11.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Carolina Central / Gardner-Webb) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Gardner-Webb -3.5 → Gardner-Webb -7 | 51.5 → 53.5 | +236 / -309 |
| DraftKings | Gardner-Webb -3.5 → Gardner-Webb -7 | 51.5 → 53.5 | +236 / -309 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Gardner-Webb win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Gardner-Webb -10 | 52.8 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Gardner-Webb -7 | 53.5 | 72% |
| Blended projection | Gardner-Webb -7.5 | 54.0 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Gardner-Webb win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 72% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Gardner-Webb -10 · market Gardner-Webb -7 · difference +3.0 pts (Gardner-Webb view)
- Total
- model 52.8 · market 53.5 · difference -0.7
Model margin is 3.0 pts more toward Gardner-Webb than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Carolina Central 21.4, Gardner-Webb 31.4 | Gardner-Webb 74%right winner | 14.0 | 11.2 |
| New formula | North Carolina Central 21.6, Gardner-Webb 31.8 | Gardner-Webb 75%right winner | 13.7 | 10.6 |
Final: North Carolina Central 20, Gardner-Webb 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Carolina Central vs Gardner-Webb: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Carolina Central | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8 | 27.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 29.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.51 | 6.05 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02 | 6.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.0 | 192.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 270.3 | 224.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 168.8 | 180.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 201.8 | 216.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 3.58 | 2.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 2.50 |
| Stat | North Carolina Central | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 42.9% | 38.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 43.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 14.4% |
| Havoc rate | 16.4% | 14.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.39 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.68 | 4.38 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.8 | 68.9 |
| Stat | North Carolina Central | Gardner-Webb |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4% | 38.4% |
| Passing success rate | 46.2% | 41.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.5% | 28.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0% | 31.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.5% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.5% | 66.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 74.9% | 60.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina Central schedule · Gardner-Webb schedule · all Week 3 projections
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