Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Carolina Central 28, Morgan State 27 at O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: North Carolina Central wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 54.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Morgan State is 5-3 against the 136th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 27 points per game (+0.8 per game). North Carolina Central is 3-5 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24 and allowing 27.9 points per game (-3.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morgan State by 22 and North Carolina Central by 23 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina Central gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Morgan State would be favoured by 1.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Morgan State vs North Carolina Central: stat comparison
| Stat | Morgan State | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8 | 24.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 27.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.92 | 5.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 6.00 |
| Rushing yards per game | 131.8 | 191.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.0 | 149.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.5 | 165.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 269.3 | 200.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25 | 3.50 |
| Stat | Morgan State | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 37.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 43.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 12.2% | 14.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 17.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.06 | 3.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.88 | 3.70 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.0 | 64.9 |
| Stat | Morgan State | North Carolina Central |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.20 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.4% | 44.6% |
| Passing success rate | 40.8% | 30.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8% | 21.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.2% | 27.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.3% | 29.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.6% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5% | 42.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4% | 57.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.2% | 57.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morgan State schedule · North Carolina Central schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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