2026 schedule
Morgan State Bears
2026 season so far
Morgan State is 5-3 against the 167th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 27 points per game (+0.8 per game).
Morgan State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs South Carolina State in Week 9. We project Morgan State 22, South Carolina State 36 — Morgan State wins 19% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
North Carolina A&T Aggies
0-1 · SOS #118
Win 17-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Morgan State by 6.2
Total 58.8
DraftKings
MORG -7
Total 49.5
Final Morgan State by 10. Morgan State beat the spread. 24 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Morgan State -7 (open Morgan State -8.5) · O/U 49.5 (open 50.5) · ML -270 / +210 · North Carolina A&T 31% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, +4 pct pts (North Carolina A&T view)
Truist StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Arizona State Sun Devils
1-0 · SOS #37
Loss 7-70
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Arizona State by 36.6
Total 50
DraftKings
ASU -43.5
Total 52.5
Final Arizona State by 63. Arizona State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arizona State -44.25 (open Arizona State -43.25) · O/U 52.5 · model vs market -7.7 pts (Arizona State view)
ESPN+ Mountain America StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Virginia Lynchburg Dragons
No record · SOS #166
Win 55-0
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Morgan State by 20.3
Total 51.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Morgan State by 55. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Hughes Stadium (MD)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit - at
Towson Tigers
0-4 · SOS #37
Win 41-26
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Towson by 1.5
Total 51.1
DraftKings
TOW -8.5
Total 44.5
Final Morgan State by 15. Morgan State beat the spread. 67 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Towson -8.5 (open Towson -10) · O/U 44.5 · ML +295 / -400 · Towson 76% no-vig · model vs market -7.0 pts, -22 pct pts (Towson view)
Johnny Unitas StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
Villanova Wildcats
2-4 · SOS #103
Win 38-35
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Villanova by 4.7
Total 50.7
DraftKings
VILL -16.5
Total 48.5
Final Morgan State by 3. Morgan State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Villanova -16.5 (open Villanova -10.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 45.5) · ML +467 / -710 · Villanova 83% no-vig · model vs market -11.8 pts, -21 pct pts (Villanova view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 6 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHL)ESPN+ Villanova StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Robert Morris Colonials
3-3 · SOS #143
Win 28-27
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Morgan State by 7.3
Total 52.3
DraftKings
MORG -10
Total 50.5
Final Morgan State by 1. Robert Morris beat the spread. 55 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Morgan State -10 · O/U 50.5 (open 54.5) · ML +270 / -360 · Morgan State 74% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -6 pct pts (Morgan State view)
Game-time weather: 71°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDMH)ESPN+ Hughes Stadium (MD)Pregame calls · how each did
- at
Tennessee State Tigers
2-5 · SOS #33
Loss 16-25
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Morgan State by 4.2
Total 52.6
DraftKings
MORG -6
Total 50.5
Final Tennessee State by 9. Tennessee State beat the spread. 41 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Morgan State -6 (open Morgan State -5.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML -227 / +178 · Tennessee State 34% no-vig · model vs market +1.8 pts, +5 pct pts (Tennessee State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 10 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBNA)ESPN+ Nissan Stadium - vs
Howard Bison
4-4 · SOS #47
Loss 20-26
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Morgan State by 7.6
Total 51.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Howard by 6. 46 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: 62°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDMH)ESPN+ Hughes Stadium (MD) - vs
South Carolina State Bulldogs
6-2 · SOS #155
Thu, Oct 29, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 22-36 · 19%
Our number
South Carolina State by 14
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 62°F, Wind 5 mph S, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTESPNU Hughes Stadium (MD) - at
Delaware State Hornets
4-4 · SOS #124
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 27-25 · 56%
Our number
Morgan State by 2
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Alumni Stadium (DE)ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games - vs
Norfolk State Spartans
4-4 · SOS #153
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-27 · 53%
Our number
Morgan State by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Hughes Stadium (MD)ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games - at
North Carolina Central Eagles
3-5 · SOS #144
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 27-28 · 48%
Our number
North Carolina Central by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
O'Kelly-Riddick StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Morgan State Bears stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-25.0
Adj. offense
14.6
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
39.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 27.8 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 27.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.92 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.14 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 131.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 242.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 144.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 269.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.75 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.75 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.25 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.14 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.17 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.9% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.0% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.6% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.06 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.88 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 54.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.10 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.18 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.24 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 46.4% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.2% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 36.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 32.6% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 45.5% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 64.4% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 63.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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