Matchup analysis
Our model projects Morgan State 28, Norfolk State 27 at Hughes Stadium (MD) in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Morgan State wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 55 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Norfolk State is 4-4 against the 120th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.8 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+8.5 per game). Morgan State is 5-3 against the 136th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.8 and allowing 27 points per game (+0.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Norfolk State by 22 and Morgan State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Morgan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Norfolk State would be favoured by 1.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Norfolk State vs Morgan State: stat comparison
| Stat | Norfolk State | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.8 | 27.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.3 | 27.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.12 | 6.92 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.44 | 6.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 204.0 | 131.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 208.3 | 242.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.4 | 144.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.3 | 269.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| Stat | Norfolk State | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 41.5% | 41.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 45.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 14.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 14.5% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 4.06 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.26 | 3.88 |
| Average starting field position | opp 18 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 54.0 |
| Stat | Norfolk State | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.24 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.6% | 46.4% |
| Passing success rate | 41.4% | 40.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 18.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.1% | 29.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.8% | 36.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7% | 32.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2% | 45.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.8% | 64.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.6% | 63.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Norfolk State schedule · Morgan State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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