Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona State 43.3, Morgan State 6.7 at Mountain America Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Arizona State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 36.6 points and 50 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Morgan State is 1-0, scoring 17 and allowing 7 points per game (+10 per game). Arizona State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Morgan State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Arizona State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona State by 14 and Arizona State by 59 about 80% of the time.
Arizona State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona State by about 34.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Morgan State 7, Arizona State 70. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.4 points and the total by 27.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Morgan State / Arizona State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona State -43.25 → Arizona State -44.25 | 52.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Arizona State -41.5 → Arizona State -43.5 | 52.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Arizona State -45 | 52.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona State -36.5 | 50.0 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Arizona State -44.5 | 52.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Arizona State -43.5 | 53.0 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Arizona State -36.6 · market Arizona State -44.25 · difference -7.6 pts (Arizona State view)
- Total
- model 50.0 · market 52.5 · difference -2.5
Model margin is 7.6 pts more toward Morgan State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morgan State 6.7, Arizona State 43.3 | Arizona State 99%right winner | 26.4 | 27.0 |
| New formula | Morgan State 4.8, Arizona State 43.0 | Arizona State 99%right winner | 24.8 | 29.3 |
Final: Morgan State 7, Arizona State 70. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morgan State vs Arizona State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morgan State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3 | 25.8#81 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 24.5#66 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 5.86#71 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67 | 5.20#26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.0 | 198.4#28 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.6 | 217.2#81 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.6 | 141.6#34 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.7 | 219.7#71 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 0.85#35 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.27 | 0.92#85 |
| Sacks per game | 2.91 | 2.62#21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.45 | 2.08#89 |
| Stat | Morgan State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.06#50 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | -0.03#43 |
| Success rate | 38.4% | 40.6%#98 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 40.3%#52 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 13.2%#47 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 9.4%#12 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6% | 14.0%#26 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6% | 12.5%#85 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 3.81#87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87 | 3.58#41 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | own 28#116 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | own 33#133 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1 | 70.9#20 |
| Stat | Morgan State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.08#39 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.03#68 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.01#62 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.06#40 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4% | 42.6%#78 |
| Passing success rate | 34.6% | 38.6%#99 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 19.2%#91 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2% | 27.8%#93 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7% | 28.2%#47 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 34.8%#119 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8% | 37.4%#41 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.8% | 53.3%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.3% | 55.8%#42 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morgan State schedule · Arizona State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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