Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morgan State 36, Virginia Lynchburg 15.7 at Hughes Stadium (MD) in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Morgan State wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.3 points and 51.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Virginia Lynchburg is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 45 points per game (-45 per game). Morgan State is 1-1, scoring 12 and allowing 38.5 points per game (-26.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Virginia Lynchburg by 2 and Morgan State by 43 about 80% of the time.
Morgan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Morgan State by about 18.2.
Result: Virginia Lynchburg 0, Morgan State 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 34.7 points and the total by 3.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Virginia Lynchburg 15.7, Morgan State 36.0 | Morgan State 91%right winner | 34.7 | 3.3 |
| New formula | Virginia Lynchburg 12.1, Morgan State 43.0 | Morgan State 97%right winner | 24.1 | 0.1 |
Final: Virginia Lynchburg 0, Morgan State 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Virginia Lynchburg vs Morgan State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 8.7 | 23.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 55.7 | 26.6 |
| Yards per play | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.04 | 5.67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 91.3 | 179.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.3 | 160.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 299.7 | 148.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 132.0 | 204.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.27 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 2.91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00 | 2.45 |
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.18 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 34.3% | 38.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.2% | 43.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 10.0% | 14.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.82 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.7 | 64.1 |
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 28.3% | 42.4% |
| Passing success rate | 26.4% | 34.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 29.1% | 22.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 31.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.0% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 60.7% | 40.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.8% | 68.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 65.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia Lynchburg schedule · Morgan State schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.