Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morgan State 29.8, Robert Morris 22.5 at Hughes Stadium (MD) in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Morgan State wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 52.2 combined points.
Robert Morris is 3-2, scoring 25.6 and allowing 24.6 points per game (+1 per game). Morgan State is 4-1, scoring 31.6 and allowing 27.6 points per game (+4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Robert Morris by 15 and Morgan State by 30 about 80% of the time.
Morgan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Morgan State by about 5.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Robert Morris 27, Morgan State 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.3 points and the total by 2.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Robert Morris / Morgan State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Morgan State -10 | 54.5 → 50.5 | +270 / -360 |
| DraftKings | Morgan State -10 | 54.5 → 50.5 | +270 / -360 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Morgan State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Morgan State -7.5 | 52.2 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Morgan State -10 | 50.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | Morgan State -9.5 | 51.4 | 74% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Morgan State win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Morgan State -7.3 · market Morgan State -10 · difference -2.7 pts (Morgan State view)
- Total
- model 52.2 · market 50.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Robert Morris than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Robert Morris 22.5, Morgan State 29.8 | Morgan State 68%right winner | 6.3 | 2.8 |
| New formula | Robert Morris 22.0, Morgan State 30.0 | Morgan State 70%right winner | 7.0 | 2.9 |
Final: Robert Morris 27, Morgan State 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Robert Morris vs Morgan State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Robert Morris | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.2 | 23.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9 | 26.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.05 | 5.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 5.67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 123.4 | 179.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.9 | 160.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.6 | 148.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 164.3 | 204.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.27 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 2.91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.55 | 2.45 |
| Stat | Robert Morris | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 35.6% | 38.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 43.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 14.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 15.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.63 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.5 | 64.1 |
| Stat | Robert Morris | Morgan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.6% | 42.4% |
| Passing success rate | 33.4% | 34.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0% | 22.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.1% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 31.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.1% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6% | 40.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9% | 68.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.0% | 65.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Robert Morris schedule · Morgan State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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