Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morgan State 32.5, North Carolina A&T 26.3 at Truist Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Morgan State wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.2 points and 58.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Morgan State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. North Carolina A&T has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morgan State by 29 and North Carolina A&T by 16 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina A&T gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Morgan State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Morgan State 17, North Carolina A&T 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.8 points and the total by 34.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Morgan State / North Carolina A&T) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Morgan State -8.5 → Morgan State -7 | 50.5 → 49.5 | -270 / +210 |
| DraftKings | Morgan State -8.5 → Morgan State -7 | 50.5 → 49.5 | -270 / +210 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina A&T win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Morgan State -6 | 58.8 | 34% |
| Market consensus | Morgan State -7 | 49.5 | 31% |
| Blended projection | Morgan State -7 | 50.9 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina A&T win probability
- model 34% · market (no-vig) 31% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Morgan State -6.2 · market Morgan State -7 · difference +0.8 pts (North Carolina A&T view)
- Total
- model 58.8 · market 49.5 · difference +9.3
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward North Carolina A&T than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morgan State 32.5, North Carolina A&T 26.3 | Morgan State 66%right winner | 3.8 | 34.8 |
| New formula | Morgan State 29.5, North Carolina A&T 28.0 | Morgan State 53%right winner | 8.5 | 33.5 |
Final: Morgan State 17, North Carolina A&T 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morgan State vs North Carolina A&T: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morgan State | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 43.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 4.74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67 | 7.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.0 | 125.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.6 | 159.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.6 | 210.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.7 | 244.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.27 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.91 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.45 | 3.75 |
| Stat | Morgan State | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 38.4% | 33.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 13.3% |
| Havoc rate | 14.6% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 3.52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87 | 4.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1 | 60.2 |
| Stat | Morgan State | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.21 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4% | 32.3% |
| Passing success rate | 34.6% | 34.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 24.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2% | 25.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7% | 29.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 37.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.8% | 44.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.8% | 54.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.3% | 62.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morgan State schedule · North Carolina A&T schedule · all Week 1 projections
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