2026 schedule
North Carolina A&T Aggies
2026 season so far
North Carolina A&T is 3-5 against the 118th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-9.2 per game).
North Carolina A&T plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Elon in Week 9. We project North Carolina A&T 19, Elon 30 — North Carolina A&T wins 23% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Morgan State Bears
1-0 · SOS #167
Loss 7-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Morgan State by 6.2
Total 58.8
DraftKings
MORG -7
Total 49.5
Final Morgan State by 10. Morgan State beat the spread. 24 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Morgan State -7 (open Morgan State -8.5) · O/U 49.5 (open 50.5) · ML -270 / +210 · North Carolina A&T 31% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, +4 pct pts (North Carolina A&T view)
Truist StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Georgia State Panthers
1-0 · SOS #126
Loss 10-59
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Georgia State by 33.2
Total 60.8
DraftKings
GAST -28.5
Total 58.5
Final Georgia State by 49. Georgia State beat the spread. 69 points — over the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Georgia State -28.25 · O/U 59.75 (open 62.25) · ML +1600 / -4000 · Georgia State 94% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Georgia State view)
ESPN+ Center Parc StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit - at
North Carolina Central Eagles
2-1 · SOS #144
Loss 22-30
Week 2
Our number· pregame
North Carolina Central by 12.6
Total 55.2
DraftKings
NCCU -24.5
Total 55.5
Final North Carolina Central by 8. North Carolina A&T beat the spread. 52 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: North Carolina Central -24.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +1040 / -2800 · North Carolina Central 92% no-vig · model vs market -11.9 pts, -12 pct pts (North Carolina Central view)
ESPN+ O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium - at
Campbell Fighting Camels
3-1 · SOS #109
Loss 14-42
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Campbell by 11.9
Total 50.5
DraftKings
CAM -20.5
Total 56.5
Final Campbell by 28. Campbell beat the spread. 56 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Campbell -20.5 (open Campbell -18.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML +770 / -1520 · Campbell 89% no-vig · model vs market -8.6 pts, -11 pct pts (Campbell view)
Barker-Lane Stadium - vs
Rhode Island Rams
2-3 · SOS #88
Win 22-18
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Rhode Island by 20.3
Total 55.7
DraftKings
URI -24.5
Total 52.5
Final North Carolina A&T by 4. North Carolina A&T beat the spread. 40 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Rhode Island -24.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -3200 / +1100 · North Carolina A&T 8% no-vig · model vs market +4.2 pts, +1 pct pts (North Carolina A&T view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 11 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGE)Truist StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
Bryant Bulldogs
4-1 · SOS #132
Loss 30-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Bryant by 12.5
Total 52.3
DraftKings
BRY -13.5
Total 47.5
Final Bryant by 1. North Carolina A&T beat the spread. 61 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Bryant -13.5 (open Bryant -15.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 45.5) · ML +321 / -442 · Bryant 77% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, +2 pct pts (Bryant view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 3 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPVD)Beirne StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
New Hampshire Wildcats
2-5 · SOS #77
Win 30-27
Week 6
Our number· pregame
New Hampshire by 5
Total 53.6
DraftKings
UNH -5.5
Total 44.5
Final North Carolina A&T by 3. North Carolina A&T beat the spread. 57 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Hampshire -5.5 · O/U 44.5 (open 47.5) · ML -213 / +168 · North Carolina A&T 35% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (North Carolina A&T view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 66°F, Wind 14 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGE)Truist StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Chicago State Cougars
1-6 · SOS #134
Win 27-12
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Chicago State by 2.1
Total 59.1
DraftKings
NCAT -18.5
Total 54.5
Final North Carolina A&T by 15. Chicago State beat the spread. 39 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Carolina A&T -18.5 (open North Carolina A&T -13.5) · O/U 54.5 · ML +710 / -1340 · North Carolina A&T 88% no-vig · model vs market -20.6 pts, -44 pct pts (North Carolina A&T view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 65°F, Wind 13 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGE)Truist StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Elon Phoenix
4-4 · SOS #151
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 19-30 · 23%
Our number
Elon by 11
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 69°F, Wind 10 mph E, 1% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTTruist StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Monmouth Hawks
6-2 · SOS #101
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 19-41 · 7%
Our number
Monmouth by 22
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kessler StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
Hampton Pirates
1-7 · SOS #141
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 29-25 · 60%
Our number
North Carolina A&T by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Armstrong StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
UAlbany Great Danes
5-3 · SOS #106
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 19-31 · 21%
Our number
UAlbany by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Truist StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
North Carolina A&T Aggies stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-36.6
Adj. offense
8.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
45.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 20.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.15 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.21 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 130.4 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 184.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 176.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 222.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.63 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.75 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.10 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 34.9% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 43.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.5% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.7% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.3% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.71 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.19 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 61.3 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.03 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.14 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.06 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 32.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 37.0% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 43.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 44.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 50.3% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 63.6% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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