Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia State 47, North Carolina A&T 13.8 at Center Parc Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Georgia State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.2 points and 60.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
North Carolina A&T is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 17 points per game (-10 per game). Georgia State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
North Carolina A&T plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Georgia State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia State by 11 and Georgia State by 56 about 80% of the time.
Georgia State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia State by about 31.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Carolina A&T 10, Georgia State 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.8 points and the total by 8.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Carolina A&T / Georgia State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia State -28.25 | 62.25 → 59.75 | +1600 / -4000 |
| Bovada | Georgia State -28 | 61 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Georgia State -28.5 | 63.5 → 58.5 | +1600 / -4000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia State -33 | 60.8 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Georgia State -28.5 | 59.8 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Georgia State -29 | 59.8 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia State -33.2 · market Georgia State -28.25 · difference +5.0 pts (Georgia State view)
- Total
- model 60.8 · market 59.75 · difference +1.0
Model margin is 5.0 pts more toward Georgia State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Carolina A&T 13.8, Georgia State 47.0 | Georgia State 99%right winner | 15.8 | 8.2 |
| New formula | North Carolina A&T 12.4, Georgia State 44.9 | Georgia State 97%right winner | 16.5 | 11.7 |
Final: North Carolina A&T 10, Georgia State 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Carolina A&T vs Georgia State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 19.8#119 |
| Points allowed per game | 43.6 | 37.8#134 |
| Yards per play | 4.74 | 5.71#81 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.14 | 6.61#129 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.8 | 139.3#110 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.1 | 262.3#28 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 210.6 | 216.2#130 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 244.2 | 243.5#111 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.08#84 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.42#135 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.33#119 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.75 | 1.50#41 |
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.04#64 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.12#126 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 41.1%#92 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 45.2%#119 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 11.3%#103 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3% | 14.7%#127 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3% | 10.4%#122 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.5% | 10.7%#31 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.52 | 3.58#112 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.47 | 4.50#125 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 26#131 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 31#110 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.2 | 70.3#25 |
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.01#82 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.05#61 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.09#119 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.15#119 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.3% | 42.5%#84 |
| Passing success rate | 34.1% | 39.7%#89 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.2% | 18.8%#84 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.5% | 32.6%#42 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4% | 37.2%#134 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1% | 41.2%#68 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6% | 47.2%#127 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5% | 61.2%#69 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.2% | 68.5%#117 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina A&T schedule · Georgia State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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