Matchup analysis
Our model projects Elon 30, North Carolina A&T 19 at Truist Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Elon wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.3 points and 49.1 combined points.
Elon is 4-4 against the 151st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 19.5 points per game (+3.9 per game). North Carolina A&T is 3-5 against the 118th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-9.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Elon by 34 and North Carolina A&T by 11 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina A&T gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Elon is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Elon vs North Carolina A&T: stat comparison
| Stat | Elon | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.5 | 29.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.92 | 5.15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.57 | 6.21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.0 | 130.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 190.4 | 184.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 118.5 | 176.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.6 | 222.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.13 | 1.38 |
| Sacks per game | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 2.75 |
| Stat | Elon | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| Success rate | 38.2% | 34.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4% | 43.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 14.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5% | 16.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.39 | 3.71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38 | 4.19 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.6 | 61.3 |
| Stat | Elon | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8% | 32.8% |
| Passing success rate | 31.6% | 37.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 30.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 27.7% | 43.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.8% | 44.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.1% | 50.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.2% | 63.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Elon schedule · North Carolina A&T schedule · all Week 9 projections
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