Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rhode Island 38, North Carolina A&T 17.7 at Truist Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Rhode Island wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.3 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Rhode Island is 2-2, scoring 25.8 and allowing 27.8 points per game (-2 per game). North Carolina A&T is 0-4, scoring 13.3 and allowing 37 points per game (-23.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rhode Island by 43 and North Carolina A&T by 2 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina A&T gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Rhode Island is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Rhode Island 18, North Carolina A&T 22. North Carolina A&T won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 24.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rhode Island / North Carolina A&T) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Rhode Island -24.5 | 52.5 | -3200 / +1100 |
| DraftKings | Rhode Island -24.5 | 52.5 | -3200 / +1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina A&T win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Rhode Island -20.5 | 55.6 | 9% |
| Market consensus | Rhode Island -24.5 | 52.5 | 8% |
| Blended projection | Rhode Island -24 | 53.3 | 5% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina A&T win probability
- model 9% · market (no-vig) 8% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Rhode Island -20.3 · market Rhode Island -24.5 · difference +4.2 pts (North Carolina A&T view)
- Total
- model 55.6 · market 52.5 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 4.2 pts more toward North Carolina A&T than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rhode Island 38.0, North Carolina A&T 17.7 | Rhode Island 91%wrong winner | 24.3 | 15.6 |
| New formula | Rhode Island 37.5, North Carolina A&T 17.2 | Rhode Island 91%wrong winner | 24.3 | 14.8 |
Final: Rhode Island 18, North Carolina A&T 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rhode Island vs North Carolina A&T: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Rhode Island | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1 | 43.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.75 | 4.74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.15 | 7.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.4 | 125.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 296.1 | 159.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.6 | 210.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.6 | 244.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.21 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29 | 3.75 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 43.9% | 33.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 13.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 16.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.58 | 3.52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23 | 4.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 60.2 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.21 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 32.3% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 34.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5% | 24.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.9% | 25.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 29.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.3% | 37.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.4% | 44.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.1% | 54.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.5% | 62.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rhode Island schedule · North Carolina A&T schedule · all Week 4 projections
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