Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Hampshire 29.3, North Carolina A&T 24.3 at Truist Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: New Hampshire wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 53.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
New Hampshire is 2-4, scoring 18.2 and allowing 33.8 points per game (-15.6 per game). North Carolina A&T is 1-5, scoring 17.5 and allowing 32.8 points per game (-15.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Hampshire by 28 and North Carolina A&T by 18 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina A&T gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. New Hampshire is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: New Hampshire 27, North Carolina A&T 30. North Carolina A&T won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Hampshire / North Carolina A&T) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Hampshire -5.5 | 47.5 → 44.5 | -213 / +168 |
| DraftKings | New Hampshire -5.5 | 47.5 → 44.5 | -213 / +168 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina A&T win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Hampshire -5 | 53.5 | 37% |
| Market consensus | New Hampshire -5.5 | 44.5 | 35% |
| Blended projection | New Hampshire -5.5 | 46.2 | 36% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina A&T win probability
- model 37% · market (no-vig) 35% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model New Hampshire -5 · market New Hampshire -5.5 · difference +0.5 pts (North Carolina A&T view)
- Total
- model 53.5 · market 44.5 · difference +9.0
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward North Carolina A&T than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Hampshire 29.3, North Carolina A&T 24.3 | New Hampshire 63%wrong winner | 8.0 | 3.5 |
| New formula | New Hampshire 28.3, North Carolina A&T 24.9 | New Hampshire 59%wrong winner | 6.4 | 3.8 |
Final: New Hampshire 27, North Carolina A&T 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Hampshire vs North Carolina A&T: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Hampshire | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8 | 43.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.48 | 4.74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 7.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.8 | 125.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.5 | 159.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.8 | 210.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.0 | 244.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.54 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.15 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.85 | 3.75 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 33.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 13.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 16.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 3.52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61 | 4.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.1 | 60.2 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | North Carolina A&T |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.21 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.4% | 32.3% |
| Passing success rate | 41.1% | 34.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 24.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2% | 25.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 29.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 37.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0% | 44.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.1% | 54.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.2% | 62.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Hampshire schedule · North Carolina A&T schedule · all Week 6 projections
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