Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chicago State 30.6, North Carolina A&T 28.5 at Truist Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Chicago State wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 59.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Chicago State is 1-5, scoring 29 and allowing 39.8 points per game (-10.8 per game). North Carolina A&T is 2-5, scoring 19.3 and allowing 32 points per game (-12.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chicago State by 25 and North Carolina A&T by 20 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina A&T gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Chicago State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Chicago State 12, North Carolina A&T 27. North Carolina A&T won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 17.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Chicago State / North Carolina A&T) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Carolina A&T -13.5 → North Carolina A&T -18.5 | 54.5 | +710 / -1340 |
| DraftKings | North Carolina A&T -13.5 → North Carolina A&T -18.5 | 54.5 | +710 / -1340 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina A&T win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Chicago State -2 | 59.1 | 45% |
| Market consensus | North Carolina A&T -18.5 | 54.5 | 88% |
| Blended projection | North Carolina A&T -15 | 55.2 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina A&T win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference -44 pts
- Margin
- model Chicago State -2.1 · market North Carolina A&T -18.5 · difference -20.6 pts (North Carolina A&T view)
- Total
- model 59.1 · market 54.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 20.6 pts more toward Chicago State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chicago State 30.6, North Carolina A&T 28.5 | Chicago State 55%wrong winner | 17.1 | 20.1 |
| New formula | Chicago State 30.9, North Carolina A&T 27.4 | Chicago State 59%wrong winner | 18.5 | 19.4 |
Final: Chicago State 12, North Carolina A&T 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Chicago State schedule · North Carolina A&T schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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