2026 schedule
Chicago State Cougars
2026 season so far
Chicago State is 1-7 against the 134th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 38.8 points per game (-14.4 per game).
Chicago State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs UFTL in Week 9. We project Chicago State 20, UFTL 38 — Chicago State wins 15% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Roosevelt Lakers
1-0 · SOS #172
Loss 28-44
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Chicago State by 3.6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Roosevelt by 16. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SeatGeek Stadium - at
UT Martin Skyhawks
1-1 · SOS #45
Loss 7-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UT Martin by 7.4
Total 50
DraftKings
UTM -45.5
Total 61.5
Final UT Martin by 35. Chicago State beat the spread. 49 points — under the 61.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UT Martin -45.5 (open UT Martin -44.5) · O/U 61.5 · model vs market -38.1 pts (UT Martin view)
ESPN+ Hardy M. Graham Stadium - vs
Kentucky Christian Knights
No record · SOS #173
Win 78-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Chicago State by 3.6
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Chicago State by 71. 85 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SeatGeek Stadium - at
Butler Bulldogs
3-1 · SOS #111
Loss 20-47
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Butler by 11.3
Total 59.3
DraftKings
BTLR -20.5
Total 54.5
Final Butler by 27. Butler beat the spread. 67 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Butler -20.5 (open Butler -19.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · ML +820 / -1700 · Butler 90% no-vig · model vs market -9.2 pts, -13 pct pts (Butler view)
ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl - vs
Norfolk State Spartans
3-2 · SOS #153
Loss 20-43
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Chicago State by 2.8
Total 59.2
DraftKings
NORF -17.5
Total 55.5
Final Norfolk State by 23. Norfolk State beat the spread. 63 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Norfolk State -17.5 · O/U 55.5 (open 54.5) · ML -1300 / +700 · Chicago State 12% no-vig · model vs market +20.3 pts, +45 pct pts (Chicago State view)
Game-time weather: 61°F, Wind 8 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMDW)SeatGeek Stadium - at
Tarleton State Texans
5-0 · SOS #96
Loss 21-56
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 27.7
Total 62.5
DraftKings
TAR -50.5
Total 64.5
Final Tarleton State by 35. Chicago State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 64.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tarleton State -50.5 (open Tarleton State -49.5) · O/U 64.5 (open 60.5) · model vs market -22.8 pts (Tarleton State view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 69°F, Wind 9 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSEP)ESPN+ Tarleton Memorial Stadium - at
North Carolina A&T Aggies
3-5 · SOS #118
Loss 12-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Chicago State by 2.1
Total 59.1
DraftKings
NCAT -18.5
Total 54.5
Final North Carolina A&T by 15. Chicago State beat the spread. 39 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Carolina A&T -18.5 (open North Carolina A&T -13.5) · O/U 54.5 · ML +710 / -1340 · North Carolina A&T 88% no-vig · model vs market -20.6 pts, -44 pct pts (North Carolina A&T view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 65°F, Wind 13 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGE)Truist Stadium - at
Lindenwood Lions
3-4 · SOS #98
Loss 9-44
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Lindenwood by 3.5
Total 54.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Lindenwood by 35. 53 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 6 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSTL)ESPN+ Hunter Stadium - vs
UFTL Eagles
No record
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 20-38 · 15%
Our number
UFTL by 18
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 61°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 33% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTSeatGeek Stadium - vs
Virginia Lynchburg Dragons
No record · SOS #166
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 45-13 · 98%
Our number
Chicago State by 32
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SeatGeek Stadium - at
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
3-5 · SOS #38
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 21-39 · 12%
Our number
Southern Utah by 18
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Eccles Coliseum
Times shown in your local time
Chicago State Cougars stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-32.5
Adj. offense
11.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
44.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 24.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 38.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.34 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.10 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 91.9 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 260.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 227.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 222.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.75 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.63 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.12 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.11 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 35.3% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 43.1% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 16.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.4% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 17.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 66.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.14 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.10 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.12 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.09 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 29.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.5% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 23.6% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.0% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.8% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 39.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 43.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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