Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chicago State 27.4, Kentucky Christian 23.8 at SeatGeek Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Chicago State wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 51.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Kentucky Christian is 0-1, scoring 24 and allowing 75 points per game (-51 per game). Chicago State is 0-2, scoring 17.5 and allowing 43 points per game (-25.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kentucky Christian by 19 and Chicago State by 26 about 80% of the time.
Chicago State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chicago State by about 1.5.
Result: Kentucky Christian 7, Chicago State 78. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 67.4 points and the total by 33.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kentucky Christian 23.8, Chicago State 27.4 | Chicago State 59%right winner | 67.4 | 33.9 |
| New formula | Kentucky Christian 27.5, Chicago State 37.2 | Chicago State 72%right winner | 61.3 | 20.2 |
Final: Kentucky Christian 7, Chicago State 78. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Kentucky Christian schedule · Chicago State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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