Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lindenwood 28.8, Chicago State 25.3 at Hunter Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Lindenwood wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Chicago State is 1-6, scoring 26.6 and allowing 38 points per game (-11.4 per game). Lindenwood is 2-4, scoring 19.3 and allowing 30.2 points per game (-10.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chicago State by 19 and Lindenwood by 26 about 80% of the time.
Lindenwood gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lindenwood by about 1.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chicago State 9, Lindenwood 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 31.5 points and the total by 1.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chicago State 25.3, Lindenwood 28.8 | Lindenwood 59%right winner | 31.5 | 1.1 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Chicago State 9, Lindenwood 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Chicago State schedule · Lindenwood schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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