2026 schedule
Lindenwood Lions
2026 season so far
Lindenwood is 3-4 against the 98th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 27.1 points per game (-4.2 per game).
Lindenwood plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Tennessee State in Week 9. We project Lindenwood 27, Tennessee State 20 — Lindenwood wins 69% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
0-1 · SOS #61
Win 20-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Lindenwood by 5.5
Total 47.5
DraftKings
LIN -7.5
Total 45.5
Final Lindenwood by 3. Charleston Southern beat the spread. 37 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lindenwood -7.5 · O/U 45.5 · model vs market -2.0 pts (Lindenwood view)
ESPN+ Hunter StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - at
Stony Brook Seawolves
1-1 · SOS #137
Loss 32-36
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Stony Brook by 5
Total 55.8
DraftKings
STBK -4
Total 50.5
Final Stony Brook by 4. The spread landed exactly on the number. 68 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stony Brook -4 · O/U 50.5 · ML +150 / -189 · Stony Brook 62% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +1 pct pts (Stony Brook view)
Kenneth P. LaValle StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Missouri State Bears
1-1 · SOS #108
Loss 14-48
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Missouri State by 29.3
Total 52.3
DraftKings
MOST -16.5
Total 53.5
Final Missouri State by 34. Missouri State beat the spread. 62 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Missouri State -16.75 (open Missouri State -18.25) · O/U 53.25 (open 52.5) · ML +562.5 / -850 · Missouri State 86% no-vig · model vs market +12.5 pts, +12 pct pts (Missouri State view)
ESPN+ Robert W. Plaster StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - at
Eastern Michigan Eagles
2-3 · SOS #131
Loss 3-29
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Eastern Michigan by 13.2
Total 56
DraftKings
EMU -24.5
Total 53.5
Final Eastern Michigan by 26. Eastern Michigan beat the spread. 32 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Michigan -24.25 (open Eastern Michigan -25.5) · O/U 53.75 (open 50.75) · ML +1200 / -3200 · Eastern Michigan 93% no-vig · model vs market -11.0 pts, -12 pct pts (Eastern Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 6 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYIP)ESPN+ Rynearson StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - vs
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
3-3 · SOS #70
Loss 27-38
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Southeast Missouri State by 0.8
Total 47.8
DraftKings
SEMO -4.5
Total 44.5
Final Southeast Missouri State by 11. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 65 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southeast Missouri State -4.5 (open Southeast Missouri State -2.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 45.5) · ML -187 / +149 · Lindenwood 38% no-vig · model vs market +3.7 pts, +10 pct pts (Lindenwood view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 77°F, Wind 6 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSTL)ESPN+ Hunter StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Eastern Illinois Panthers
2-5 · SOS #46
Win 20-13
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Eastern Illinois by 2.5
Total 53.3
DraftKings
EIU -1.5
Total 49.5
Final Lindenwood by 7. Lindenwood beat the spread. 33 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Illinois -1.5 (open Lindenwood -1.5) · O/U 49.5 · ML -102 / -121 · Eastern Illinois 52% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +5 pct pts (Eastern Illinois view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 55°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMTO)ESPN+ O'Brien FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - vs
Chicago State Cougars
1-7 · SOS #134
Win 44-9
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Lindenwood by 3.5
Total 54.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Lindenwood by 35. 53 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 6 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSTL)ESPN+ Hunter StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Tennessee State Tigers
2-6 · SOS #33
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 27-20 · 69%
Our number
Lindenwood by 7
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 5 mph E, 10% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Hunter StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #54
Sat, Nov 7, 6:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 19-29 · 27%
Our number
Gardner-Webb by 10
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Ernest W. Spangler StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
UT Martin Skyhawks
3-5 · SOS #45
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 23-29 · 34%
Our number
UT Martin by 6
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hardy M. Graham StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Western Illinois Leathernecks
4-4 · SOS #95
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 26-32 · 36%
Our number
Western Illinois by 6
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hunter StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Lindenwood Lions stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-29.6
Adj. offense
11.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
40.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 22.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 27.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.64 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.22 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 173.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 168.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 155.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 260.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.43 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.14 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.29 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.14 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.01 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.11 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 35.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.3% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 10.0% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 17.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.25 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.97 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 19 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 18 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 60.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.15 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.07 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 31.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 35.3% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 23.7% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 27.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 35.4% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 44.9% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 54.9% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 71.7% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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