Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southeast Missouri State 24.3, Lindenwood 23.5 at Hunter Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Southeast Missouri State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 47.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Southeast Missouri State is 2-3, scoring 19.4 and allowing 24.4 points per game (-5 per game). Lindenwood is 1-3, scoring 17.3 and allowing 32.5 points per game (-15.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southeast Missouri State by 23 and Lindenwood by 22 about 80% of the time.
Lindenwood gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southeast Missouri State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southeast Missouri State 38, Lindenwood 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.3 points and the total by 17.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southeast Missouri State / Lindenwood) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southeast Missouri State -2.5 → Southeast Missouri State -4.5 | 45.5 → 44.5 | -187 / +149 |
| DraftKings | Southeast Missouri State -2.5 → Southeast Missouri State -4.5 | 45.5 → 44.5 | -187 / +149 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Lindenwood win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southeast Missouri State -0.5 | 47.8 | 48% |
| Market consensus | Southeast Missouri State -4.5 | 44.5 | 38% |
| Blended projection | Southeast Missouri State -4 | 45.9 | 40% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Lindenwood win probability
- model 48% · market (no-vig) 38% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Southeast Missouri State -0.7 · market Southeast Missouri State -4.5 · difference +3.8 pts (Lindenwood view)
- Total
- model 47.8 · market 44.5 · difference +3.3
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Lindenwood than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southeast Missouri State 24.3, Lindenwood 23.5 | Southeast Missouri State 52%right winner | 10.3 | 17.2 |
| New formula | Southeast Missouri State 24.5, Lindenwood 23.7 | Southeast Missouri State 52%right winner | 10.2 | 16.8 |
Final: Southeast Missouri State 38, Lindenwood 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southeast Missouri State vs Lindenwood: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Lindenwood |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.2 | 24.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 27.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 5.96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.37 | 5.75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 148.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.8 | 224.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.2 | 185.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 267.6 | 191.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Lindenwood |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 40.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 44.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5% | 12.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 14.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.83 | 3.16 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 3.70 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 13 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6 | 62.6 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Lindenwood |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.0% | 37.3% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 43.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0% | 23.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 28.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 31.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 36.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 41.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.8% | 69.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2% | 43.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southeast Missouri State schedule · Lindenwood schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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