2026 schedule
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
2026 season so far
Southeast Missouri State is 5-3 against the 70th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game).
Southeast Missouri State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Gardner-Webb in Week 9. We project Southeast Missouri State 24, Gardner-Webb 23 — Southeast Missouri State wins 53% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Indiana State Sycamores
0-1 · SOS #19
Win 23-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Indiana State by 4.4
Total 56.8
DraftKings
INST -2.5
Total 52.5
Final Southeast Missouri State by 2. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 44 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana State -2.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML +115 / -143 · Indiana State 56% no-vig · model vs market +1.9 pts, +6 pct pts (Indiana State view)
ESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
Iowa State Cyclones
1-0 · SOS #29
Loss 10-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Iowa State by 38.8
Total 52
DraftKings
ISU -29.5
Total 52.5
Final Iowa State by 28. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 48 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Iowa State -29.5 · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +2500 / -9000 · Iowa State 96% no-vig · model vs market +9.3 pts, +3 pct pts (Iowa State view)
ESPN+ Jack Trice StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - at
Southern Illinois Salukis
2-1 · SOS #30
Loss 20-34
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Southern Illinois by 10.8
Total 54.6
DraftKings
SIU -7.5
Total 53.5
Final Southern Illinois by 14. Southern Illinois beat the spread. 54 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Illinois -7.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +266 / -355 · Southern Illinois 74% no-vig · model vs market +3.3 pts, +2 pct pts (Southern Illinois view)
ESPN+ Saluki StadiumPregame calls · how each did
- vs
Central Arkansas Bears
2-2 · SOS #28
Win 27-9
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Southeast Missouri State by 5
Total 54.4
DraftKings
SEMO -4
Total 54.5
Final Southeast Missouri State by 18. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southeast Missouri State -4 (open Southeast Missouri State -3) · O/U 54.5 · ML +151 / -189 · Southeast Missouri State 62% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +1 pct pts (Southeast Missouri State view)
ESPN+ Houck Field - vs
West Florida Argonauts
3-1 · SOS #79
Loss 17-20
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Southeast Missouri State by 4.9
Total 50.7
DraftKings
SEMO -6
Total 52.5
Final West Florida by 3. West Florida beat the spread. 37 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southeast Missouri State -6 (open Southeast Missouri State -6.5) · O/U 52.5 · ML +137 / -171 · Southeast Missouri State 60% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, +3 pct pts (Southeast Missouri State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 68°F, Wind 6 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCGI)ESPN+ Houck FieldPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
Lindenwood Lions
1-4 · SOS #98
Win 38-27
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Southeast Missouri State by 0.8
Total 47.8
DraftKings
SEMO -4.5
Total 44.5
Final Southeast Missouri State by 11. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 65 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southeast Missouri State -4.5 (open Southeast Missouri State -2.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 45.5) · ML -187 / +149 · Lindenwood 38% no-vig · model vs market +3.7 pts, +10 pct pts (Lindenwood view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 77°F, Wind 6 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSTL)ESPN+ Hunter StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Western Illinois Leathernecks
3-4 · SOS #95
Win 40-30
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Southeast Missouri State by 2.2
Total 54
DraftKings
SEMO -6
Total 52.5
Final Southeast Missouri State by 10. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 70 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southeast Missouri State -6 · O/U 52.5 (open 55.5) · ML +173 / -219 · Southeast Missouri State 65% no-vig · model vs market -3.8 pts, -10 pct pts (Southeast Missouri State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 11 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCGI)ESPN+ Houck FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game: Record 30 hits, 30 misses (50% hit rate) over 60 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game: missed · Under · high total, close game → went under 26 of 38 since week 3 · base 54%Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameBounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded gamesFavorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: missed (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game - at
Eastern Illinois Panthers
2-6 · SOS #46
Win 20-10
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Southeast Missouri State by 5.5
Total 50.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Southeast Missouri State by 10. 30 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 7 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMTO)ESPN+ O'Brien FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #54
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 24-23 · 53%
Our number
Southeast Missouri State by 1
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 2 mph ESE, 6% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Houck FieldExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Tennessee State Tigers
2-6 · SOS #33
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 28-18 · 73%
Our number
Southeast Missouri State by 10
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Nissan StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
4-4 · SOS #61
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 22-23 · 48%
Our number
Charleston Southern by 1
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Buccaneer FieldExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
UT Martin Skyhawks
3-5 · SOS #45
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 27-23 · 61%
Our number
Southeast Missouri State by 4
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Houck FieldExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-21.9
Adj. offense
14.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 24.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 23.6 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.25 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.93 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 157.4 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 210.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 137.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 219.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.63 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.01 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.01 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 39.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 36.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.5% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 17.8% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.37 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.48 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 70.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.05 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 36.4% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.9% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 27.7% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.9% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.9% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 64.4% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 63.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.