Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southeast Missouri State 28, Eastern Illinois 22.5 at O'Brien Field in Week 8. That is a lean: Southeast Missouri State wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Southeast Missouri State is 4-3, scoring 25 and allowing 25.6 points per game (-0.6 per game). Eastern Illinois is 2-5, scoring 17.7 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-15.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southeast Missouri State by 28 and Eastern Illinois by 17 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southeast Missouri State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southeast Missouri State 20, Eastern Illinois 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.5 points and the total by 20.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southeast Missouri State 28.0, Eastern Illinois 22.5 | Southeast Missouri State 64%right winner | 4.5 | 20.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Southeast Missouri State 20, Eastern Illinois 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southeast Missouri State vs Eastern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.2 | 17.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 29.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 5.13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.37 | 6.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 156.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.8 | 166.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.2 | 156.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 267.6 | 237.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33 | 1.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 2.82 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 46.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 13.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 17.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.83 | 3.38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 3.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6 | 63.0 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.0% | 40.3% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 36.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 32.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 35.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.8% | 51.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2% | 59.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southeast Missouri State schedule · Eastern Illinois schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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