Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern Illinois 32.7, Southeast Missouri State 21.9 at Saluki Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Southern Illinois wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.8 points and 54.6 combined points.
Southeast Missouri State is 1-1, scoring 16.5 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-13 per game). Southern Illinois is 1-1, scoring 26.5 and allowing 26 points per game (+0.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southeast Missouri State by 12 and Southern Illinois by 33 about 80% of the time.
Southern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southern Illinois by about 8.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southeast Missouri State 20, Southern Illinois 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.2 points and the total by 0.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southeast Missouri State / Southern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southern Illinois -7.5 | 53.5 | +266 / -355 |
| DraftKings | Southern Illinois -7.5 | 53.5 | +266 / -355 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southern Illinois -11 | 54.6 | 76% |
| Market consensus | Southern Illinois -7.5 | 53.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | Southern Illinois -8 | 54.1 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Illinois win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Southern Illinois -10.8 · market Southern Illinois -7.5 · difference +3.3 pts (Southern Illinois view)
- Total
- model 54.6 · market 53.5 · difference +1.1
Model margin is 3.3 pts more toward Southern Illinois than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southeast Missouri State 21.9, Southern Illinois 32.7 | Southern Illinois 76%right winner | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| New formula | Southeast Missouri State 19.3, Southern Illinois 36.3 | Southern Illinois 86%right winner | 3.0 | 1.6 |
Final: Southeast Missouri State 20, Southern Illinois 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southeast Missouri State vs Southern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.2 | 36.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 26.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 6.96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.37 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 215.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.8 | 237.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.2 | 202.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 267.6 | 211.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 47.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 45.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 13.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 8.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.83 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 3.65 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6 | 65.1 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.0% | 54.4% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 43.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0% | 15.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 35.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 34.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 53.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 46.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.8% | 64.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2% | 53.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southeast Missouri State schedule · Southern Illinois schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.